Bioenergy in Mexico offers a great potential as a transition strategy for introducing new energy supply chains. However, studies which focus on wood supply chains for bioenergy generation at a national level are scarce. Hence, this paper presents a model for predicting short-term availability of woody biomass for energetic use according to two scenarios. Scenario A exhibits business as usual conditions. In scenario B, the availability of forest woody biomass is improved by an increment in the areas of sustainably managed forest. The theoretical, technical and economic potentials of forest woody biomass availability for energetic use were assessed using (a) numerical modeling, (b) Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and (c) regression analyses Sustainability constraints and challenges such as soil degradation, terrain slope and mechanization level were considered. A regional case study was carried out, focusing on three species with the highest utilization rates (Pinus, Quercus and Abies). Setting the base at the year 2013, a forecast analysis for the year 2023 was performed. Under scenario B, for year 2023 a technical potential of 60.22 PJ was calculated, meaning an achievement of the goals set by the National Forestry Council regarding hectares under sustainable utilization. Furthermore, a net future value analysis was carried out to account the economic output during the forecasted period. Where comprehensive data was not available, the developed model was especially useful for predicting potentially available woody biomass for energy use.

中文翻译：

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基于短期预测方案的能源用森林木质生物量可利用性建模

墨西哥的生物能源作为引入新能源供应链的过渡策略具有巨大潜力。但是，很少有研究集中在国家一级的木材供应链上以产生生物能。因此，本文根据两种情况提出了一种用于能源利用的木质生物量的短期可利用性预测模型。方案A展示了照常营业的情况。在方案B中，通过增加可持续管理森林的面积，森林木质生物量的可利用性得到提高。使用（a）数值模型，（b）Holt-Winters指数平滑法和（c）回归分析等可持续性约束和挑战（例如土壤退化），考虑了地形坡度和机械化水平。进行了区域案例研究，重点研究了三个利用率最高的物种（松，栎和冷杉）。以2013年为基准，对2023年进行了预测分析。在方案B下，到2023年，技术潜力为60.22 PJ，这意味着实现了美国国家林业委员会针对可持续利用公顷确定的目标。此外，进行了净未来价值分析，以计算预测期内的经济产出。在没有全面数据的情况下，开发的模型对于预测潜在可用的木质生物质以供能源使用特别有用。