The context within which family forest owners operate is constantly changing due to many internal and external factors. Many emerging social, economic, environmental, and technological changes could have profound effects on family forest owners and their land in the future. This paper explores a possible transformative technological change: A “Coming Age of Wood” in which a large number of technological innovations in wood products result in a significant increase in the use of wood-based materials throughout the global economy, substituting for a significant share of non-renewable materials. This high impact development could be transformative for forests and forestry, including small-scale forestry. We used a participatory Futures Research method called the Implications Wheel^® to explore the potential direct and indirect implications of a Coming Age of Wood for family forest owners. A total of 195 possible higher-order implications were uncovered, including implications related to major themes of negative ecological effects, positive economic effects, increased conflict between different stakeholders, and negative effects on rural communities. Anticipating some of the possibilities in advance can provide early warnings of the kinds of changes that may be coming, and help enable planners, managers and policy makers to be proactive and build barriers to undesirable change and bridges to facilitate positive change.

中文翻译：

---

“木材的新时代”和家庭森林所有者：一个启示Wheel®探索

由于许多内部和外部因素，家庭林所有者的经营环境不断变化。未来许多新出现的社会，经济，环境和技术变化可能会对家庭林所有者及其土地产生深远影响。本文探讨了可能的变革性技术变革：“木材的未来时代”，其中木材产品的大量技术创新导致在全球经济中木材基材料的使用显着增加，从而取代了相当大的份额。不可再生材料。这种高影响力的发展可能对包括小规模林业在内的森林和林业产生变革。我们使用了一种参与式的期货研究方法，称为隐含转轮^®探索“木材时代”对家庭林主的潜在直接和间接影响。总共发现了195种可能的高阶影响，包括与负面生态影响，正面经济影响，不同利益相关者之间的冲突增加以及对农村社区的负面影响等主要主题相关的影响。提前预计一些可能性可以对即将发生的变化提供预警，并有助于使计划者，管理人员和政策制定者更加主动，为不希望发生的变化设置障碍，并为促进积极的变化搭建桥梁。