Abstract

Conservation strategies aiming to safeguard species genetic diversity in the Cerrado are urgent. The biome is an agriculture frontier and lost at least 50% of its natural capital since the early 1950s, with the highest rate of vegetation clearing among all Brazilian biomes. Here we match information on geographic range shifts in response to climate changes and habitat loss to define conservation priorities for species genetic diversity using Eugenia dysenterica, a widely distributed tree across the Brazilian Cerrado. We found a set of 27 optimal solutions in which a minimum of 12 out of 23 populations are necessary to represent all 208 alleles of the species. Environmental suitability predicted for 2050 was higher for populations in the southern region of the Cerrado, whereas the proportion of natural remnants around populations expected for 2030 was lower in this same region. Thus, it seems to be more conservative to adopt “in situ” strategies in the northwestern part of the species range to hold more genetic diversity in areas harboring high numbers of natural remnants, despite the likely reduction in climatic suitability. On the other hand, in the southern and southeastern region of the range, despite more stability from a climatic point of view, there was a serious constraint given the high levels of human occupation; in this case, “ex situ” strategies might be a better option for the species. Our results and proposed priorities enable different strategies for making an operational approach for conservation of genetic diversity. Adopting different prioritization strategies for stable and unstable regions (both in climatic suitability and natural remnants) in the future would allow, in principle, to avoid “the worst of both worlds” to achieve an efficient conservation program for the species.

中文翻译：

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克服两个世界的最坏情况：将气候变化和栖息地丧失纳入巴西塞拉多地区遗传多样性的空间保护规划

摘要

旨在保护塞拉多物种遗传多样性的保护策略是迫切的。自1950年代初以来，该生物群落是农业的前沿领域，损失了至少50％的自然资本，是巴西所有生物群落中植被清除率最高的地区。在这里，我们对响应气候变化和栖息地丧失的地理范围变化信息进行匹配，从而确定了利用Eugenia dysenterica对物种遗传多样性的保护重点，遍布巴西Cerrado的一棵分布广泛的树。我们发现了一组27种最佳解决方案，其中23个种群中的至少12个必须代表该物种的所有208个等位基因。Cerrado南部地区人口对2050年的环境适应性预测较高，而该地区预计2030年人口周围的自然残留物比例较低。因此，尽管气候适应性可能降低，但在物种西北部采取“原地”策略似乎更保守，以在拥有大量自然残留物的地区保持更多的遗传多样性。另一方面，在该范围的南部和东南部，尽管从气候角度来看稳定性更高，鉴于人类的高度占领，存在着严重的限制；在这种情况下，“异地”策略可能是该物种更好的选择。我们的研究结果和拟议的优先重点为制定保护遗传多样性的可行方法提供了不同的策略。原则上，未来针对稳定和不稳定地区（在气候适应性和自然残留物方面）采用不同的优先级排序策略，将原则上避免“两全其美”，从而为该物种实现有效的保护计划。