Abstract

Power generation processes are major contributors of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which have been linked to the global warming phenomenon, and by relying on solar photovoltaics (PV) for power generation, GHG emissions can be minimized. However, current and future power supply scenarios in Nigeria are heavily dependent on natural-gas-fired plants. Whereas the solar energy resource available in Nigeria is adequate for PV power generation, concurrent evaluations of its techno-economic feasibility and GHG mitigation effectiveness are lacking. In this study, 100-MW solar PV stations were proposed for 25 locations in Nigeria and analyzed for profitability and GHG mitigation effectiveness. Using the RETScreen software, energy and cost models were developed for each location, and GHG emissions the base (gas-fired plants) and proposed cases (solar PV plants) were analyzed. The systems proposed for high-latitude locations were found to be more profitable than those for low-latitude locations. Of the 25 locations, the proposed 100-MW PV plant in Gusau (lat. \(11.88^{\circ }\,\hbox {N}\), lon. 6.65°) had the highest annual energy production of 167,307 MWh of electricity, a cumulative cash flow (CCF) of US$795.3 million, an energy production cost of US$66.74/MWh, a Net Present Value (NPV) of US$215 million, and a GHG reduction potential of 41,195.2 \(\hbox {tCO}_2/\hbox {year}\). Port Harcourt (lat. \(4.75^{\circ }\,\hbox {N}\), lon. \(7.00^{\circ }\,\hbox {E}\)) was the least favorable location with electricity production estimated at 108,309 MWh per annum, CCF at US$389.7 million, energy production cost at US$103.10/MWh, NPV at US$40 million, and GHG reduction potential estimated at \(26,668.5\hbox { tCO}_2/\hbox {year}\). The huge initial costs required for installing the systems could be recovered within 10.6 to 14 years at the locations considered, the estimated simple payback periods being between 11.6 and 18 years. An average GHG reduction payment of US$265/\(\hbox {tCO}_2\) is recommended to improve the profitability of the solar PV plants in Nigeria.

Graphic abstract

摘要

发电过程是温室气体（GHG）的主要贡献者，与全球变暖现象有关，通过依靠太阳能光伏（PV）发电，可以将温室气体排放降至最低。但是，尼日利亚当前和未来的电力供应情景在很大程度上取决于天然气发电厂。尽管尼日利亚可利用的太阳能资源足够用于光伏发电，但仍缺乏对其技术经济可行性和温室气体减排效果的同时评估。在这项研究中，建议在尼日利亚的25个地点使用100兆瓦的太阳能光伏电站，并分析其盈利能力和温室气体减排效果。使用RETScreen软件，为每个地点开发了能源和成本模型，分析了基地（燃气发电厂）和拟议案例（太阳能光伏发电厂）的温室气体排放。发现针对高纬度地区提出的系统比针对低纬度地区提出的系统更有利可图。在这25个地点中，拟建的Gusau（lat。\（11.88 ^ {\ circ} \，\ hbox {N} \），lon。6.65°）的年度能源产量最高，为167,307 MWh，累计现金流量（CCF）为7.953亿美元，能源生产成本为66.74美元/ MWh，净现值（NPV）为2.15亿美元，以及温室气体减排潜力为41,195.2 \（\ hbox {tCO} _2 / \ hbox {year} \）。港口Harcourt（纬度\（4.75 ^ {\ circ} \，\ hbox {N} \），lon。 \（7.00 ^ {\ circ} \，\ hbox {E} \））是电力最不利的地区年产量估计为108,309 MWh，CCF为3.897亿美元，能源生产成本为103.10美元/ MWh，NPV为4,000万美元，GHG减排潜力估计为\（26,668.5 \ hbox {tCO} _2 / \ hbox {year} \）。安装系统所需的巨大初始成本可以在所考虑的地点的10.6至14年内收回，估计的简单投资回收期在11.6至18年之间。建议提高平均温室气体减排量$ 265 / \（\ hbox {tCO} _2 \），以提高尼日利亚太阳能光伏电站的盈利能力。

图形摘要