Abstract

This paper reports the estimation of the predictability of seismicity and large earthquakes in Kamchatka as inferred from data in the Kamchatka regional catalog for 1962–2014. The mathematical model uses a second-order nonlinear differential equation, while the optimization algorithm and the estimates of predictability are the author’s own. The estimates show a high predictability of seismicity; the extrema of prediction nonlinearity typical of large earthquakes usually occur simultaneously with similar extrema of seismicity as a whole. Overall, 220 large (K ≥ 13.3) Kamchatka earthquakes were analyzed to find that foreshock predictability was available for 200 earthquakes (~30 000 determinations) and aftershock predictability for 215 earthquakes (~300 000 determinations). The predictability related to large earthquakes began to be seen and was rapidly increasing at intermediate (7.5–30 km) radii of hypocenter samples. The prediction distances over time were some tens and hundreds of days for foreshock predictability and some hundreds and thousands of days for aftershock predictability. These results demonstrate very good promise for the approximation extrapolation approach to the prediction of both large earthquakes themselves and of subsequent aftershock decay of seismic activity.

中文翻译：

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地震和大地震的可预测性：堪察加半岛1962年至2014年

摘要

本文报告了从堪察加地区目录中1962-2014年的数据推论得出的堪察加半岛地震活动性和大地震的可预测性估计。数学模型使用二阶非线性微分方程，而优化算法和可预测性的估计是作者自己的。估计显示出对地震活动的高度可预测性；大地震典型的预测非线性极值通常与整体上类似的地震极值同时发生。总体来说，220大（ķ≥13.3）对堪察加地震进行分析后发现，前震可预测性可用于200次地震（约3万次确定），余震可预测性可用于215次地震（约30万次确定）。与大地震有关的可预测性开始显现，并且在震源样本的中间半径（7.5-30 km）处迅速增加。对于前震的可预测性，随时间的预测距离约为数十天和数百天，而对于余震的可预测性则为数十万天。这些结果证明了采用近似外推法预测大地震本身以及随后地震活动余震衰减的良好前景。