Abstract

Predicting shifts in the distribution and abundance of pest organisms relies on an accurate forecasting of their response to climate change. The oak processionary moth (OPM) Thaumetopoea processionea causes serious damages to oak trees in forest, urban and other landscapes as well as severe allergic reactions to humans and animals. In the 1990’s and 2000’s, the OPM extended its range from mainland Europe and the Middle East into northern Europe. In 2005, it was also accidentally introduced in the United Kingdom. Moreover, the intensity and the frequency of OPM outbreaks are thought to have recently increased in several countries of Europe including Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Austria. In the present study, we aimed at forecasting the potential distribution of the OPM in Europe under current and future climate conditions. We thoroughly compiled available records of established populations all across Europe and fitted MaxEnt and BIOCLIM models to infer bioclimatic requirements for this species. Both models showed good predictive performance under current climate conditions. In particular, the surroundings of London where the OPM recently got established were predicted as highly climatically suitable. Models also predicted that many parts of northern Europe where the OPM currently does not occur (e.g. central UK, Wales, Ireland, southern Scotland, Denmark, southern part of the Scandinavian Peninsula, etc.) might become climatically suitable by 2050. Our predictions warrant the need for proper communication and management planning around the risks associated with the potential expansion of the OPM in Europe.

中文翻译：

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入侵性橡树行进蛾的当前和未来分布

摘要

预测有害生物分布和数量的变化取决于对气候变化的准确预测。栎行蛾（OPM）Thaumetopoea processionea会对森林，城市和其他景观中的橡树造成严重破坏，并对人类和动物造成严重的过敏反应。在1990年代和2000年代，OPM的范围从欧洲大陆和中东扩展到了北欧。2005年，它也在英国意外引入。此外，最近认为在包括比利时，荷兰，德国和奥地利在内的几个欧洲国家，OPM爆发的强度和频率有所增加。在本研究中，我们旨在预测当前和未来气候条件下欧洲OPM的潜在分布。我们彻底汇编了整个欧洲已建立种群的可用记录，并拟合了MaxEnt和BIOCLIM模型以推断该物种的生物气候要求。两种模型在当前气候条件下均显示出良好的预测性能。特别是，最近建立OPM的伦敦周围地区被预测为非常适合气候。模型还预测，到2050年，北欧许多目前尚未发生OPM的地区（例如，英国中部，威尔士，爱尔兰，苏格兰南部，丹麦，斯堪的纳维亚半岛的南部等）可能在气候上变得合适。我们的预测证明需要围绕与OPM在欧洲潜在扩展相关的风险进行适当的沟通和管理计划。