Objectives The incidence of gastric cancer continues to decrease globally, approaching levels that in some populations could define it as a rare disease. To explore this on a wider scale, we predict its future burden in 34 countries with long-standing population-based data. Methods Data on gastric cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex and age were extracted for 92 cancer registries in 34 countries included in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus. Numbers of new cases and age-standardised incidence rates (ASR per 100 000) were predicted up to 2035 by fitting and extrapolating age–period–cohort models. Results Overall gastric cancer incidence rates are predicted to continue falling in the future in the majority of countries, including high-incidence countries such as Japan (ASR 36 in 2010 vs ASR 30 in 2035) but also low-incidence countries such as Australia (ASR 5.1 in 2010 vs ASR 4.6 in 2035). A total of 16 countries are predicted to fall below the rare disease threshold (defined as 6 per 100 000 person-years) by 2035, while the number of newly diagnosed cases remains high and is predicted to continue growing. In contrast, incidence increases were seen in younger age groups (below age 50 years) in both low-incidence and high-incidence populations. Conclusions While gastric cancer is predicted to become a rare disease in a growing number of countries, incidence levels remain high in some regions, and increasing risks have been observed in younger generations. The predicted growing number of new cases highlights that gastric cancer remains a major challenge to public health on a global scale.

中文翻译：

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胃癌会成为罕见病吗？对 2035 年预测发病率趋势的全球评估

目标 胃癌的发病率在全球范围内持续下降，接近某些人群可将其定义为罕见疾病的水平。为了在更广泛的范围内探索这一点，我们使用长期基于人口的数据预测了 34 个国家/地区的未来负担。方法 提取五大洲癌症发病率增强版中 34 个国家 92 个癌症登记处按诊断年份、性别和年龄划分的胃癌发病率数据。通过拟合和外推年龄-时期-队列模型，预测到 2035 年的新病例数和年龄标准化发病率（每 10 万人的 ASR）。结果 预计未来大多数国家的总体胃癌发病率将继续下降，包括日本等高发国家（2010 年的 ASR 36 对 2035 年的 ASR 30）以及澳大利亚等低发国家（2010 年的 ASR 5.1 对 2035 年的 ASR 4.6）。预计到 2035 年，共有 16 个国家将低于罕见病阈值（定义为每 10 万人年 6 例），而新诊断病例的数量仍然很高，预计将继续增长。相比之下，在低发病率和高发病率人群中，年轻年龄组（50 岁以下）的发病率增加。结论 尽管越来越多的国家预计胃癌将成为一种罕见疾病，但某些地区的发病率仍然很高，而且在年轻一代中观察到的风险正在增加。