Risk estimation for air travel-induced malaria transmission in central Europe - A mathematical modelling study.,Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease

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Risk estimation for air travel-induced malaria transmission in central Europe - A mathematical modelling study.
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease ( IF 12.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101564
Susanne G Pondorfer ₁ , Veronika K Jaeger ₂ , Peter Scholz-Kreisel ₃ , Johannes Horn ₄ , Ralf Krumkamp ₅ , Benno Kreuels ₆ , Rafael T Mikolajczyk ₇ , André Karch ₈

Affiliation

ESME - Research Group Epidemiological and Statistical Methods, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; Insitute of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University Medical Center Mainz, Germany; Department of Ophthalmology, University of Bonn, Germany.
Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Germany.
Insitute of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University Medical Center Mainz, Germany.
ESME - Research Group Epidemiological and Statistical Methods, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, University of Halle, Germany.
Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Lübeck-Borstel-Riems, Germany.
German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hamburg-Lübeck-Borstel-Riems, Germany; Department of Tropical Medicine, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine & I. Department of Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
ESME - Research Group Epidemiological and Statistical Methods, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, University of Halle, Germany; German Center for Infection Research, Hannover-Braunschweig Site, Germany.
ESME - Research Group Epidemiological and Statistical Methods, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Münster, Germany; German Center for Infection Research, Hannover-Braunschweig Site, Germany.

Background

Aim of our study was to identify conditions under which malaria transmission caused by imported infectious mosquitoes or travellers could occur at large central European airports, and if such transmission could be sustained by indigenous mosquitoes.

Methods

We developed a deterministic and a stochastic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (humans)/Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious (mosquitoes) model with two mosquito (imported Anopheles gambiae, indigenous A. plumbeus) and three human (travellers, airport personnel exposed/not exposed to imported A. gambiae) populations. We assessed various scenarios to identify combinations of model parameters leading to ongoing malaria transmission at the airport.

Results

The number of infected airport personnel was low (five infected employees/six months) under assumptions reflecting possible future climatic conditions, current passenger mobility and no desinsection of airports/aircraft. Almost all infections among airport personnel were directly due to bites by imported A. gambiae. Indigenous mosquitoes would need to have comparable transmission parameters to A. gambiae to sustain disease transmission. Incoming infectious passengers play only a minor role in malaria transmission. Use of aircraft/airport desinsection led to no transmission events in the model.

Conclusion

Our study shows that sustainable air travel-induced malaria transmission in central Europe is unlikely under current conditions or conditions which might become realistic in the next century.

中文翻译：

中欧航空旅行诱发的疟疾传播风险评估——数学建模研究。

背景

我们研究的目的是确定在何种条件下由进口传染性蚊子或旅行者引起的疟疾传播可能发生在欧洲中部的大型机场，以及这种传播是否可以由本土蚊子维持。

方法

我们开发了一个确定性和随机的隔室易感-暴露-感染-恢复-易感（人类）/易感-暴露-感染（蚊子）模型，其中包含两只蚊子（进口的冈比亚按蚊、本土的A. plumbeus）和三个人（旅行者、机场）接触/未接触进口冈比亚曲霉）种群的人员。我们评估了各种情景，以确定导致机场持续传播疟疾的模型参数组合。

结果

在反映未来可能的气候条件、当前的乘客流动性和机场/飞机没有杀虫的假设下，受感染的机场人员数量很少（5 名受感染员工/六个月）。几乎所有机场工作人员的感染都直接由进口冈比亚曲霉叮咬所致。本土蚊子需要与冈比亚蚊具有可比的传播参数才能维持疾病传播。传入的传染性乘客在疟疾传播中仅起次要作用。使用飞机/机场灭虫导致模型中没有传输事件。