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Local extinction risk under climate change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte
Journal of Ecology ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-28 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13361 Miguel A. Acevedo 1 , Lydia Beaudrot 2 , Elvia J. Meléndez‐Ackerman 3 , Raymond L. Tremblay 4
中文翻译：
气候变化下新热带非对称分布附生植物的局部灭绝风险
更新日期：2020-01-28
Journal of Ecology ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-28 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13361 Miguel A. Acevedo 1 , Lydia Beaudrot 2 , Elvia J. Meléndez‐Ackerman 3 , Raymond L. Tremblay 4
Affiliation
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- The long‐term fate of populations experiencing disequilibrium conditions with their environment will ultimately depend on how local colonization and extinction dynamics respond to abiotic conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall), dispersal limitation and biotic interactions (e.g. competition, facilitation or interactions with natural enemies). Understanding how these factors influence distributional dynamics under climate change is a major knowledge gap, particularly for small ranged and dispersal‐limited plant species, which are at higher risk of extinction. Epiphytes are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and we know little about what drives their distribution and how they will respond to climate change. To address this issue, we leveraged a 10‐year dataset on the occupancy dynamics of the endemic orchid Lepanthes rupestris to identify the drivers of local colonization and extinction dynamics and assess the long‐term fate of this population under multiple climate change scenarios.
- We compared 290 dynamic occupancy models in their ability to predict the colonization and extinction dynamics of a L. rupestris metapopulation. The model set predicted colonization–extinction dynamics as a function of asymmetric patch connectivity, moss area, elevation, temperature (minimum, maximum and variability) and/or rainfall.
- The best model predicted that local colonization increases with increasing asymmetric patch connectivity but decreases as minimum temperature and maximum temperature variability increase. The best model also predicted that local extinction increases with increasing variability in maximum temperature. Negative effects were more severe in smaller patches.
- Synthesis . Overall, our results demonstrate the role of asymmetric connectivity, climate and interactions with moss area as drivers of colonization and extinction dynamics. Moreover, our results suggest that asymmetrically dispersed epiphytes may struggle to persist under climate change because their limited connectivity may not be enough to counterbalance the negative effects of increasing mean or variability in temperature.
中文翻译：
气候变化下新热带非对称分布附生植物的局部灭绝风险
- 遭受环境不平衡状况影响的人口的长期命运最终将取决于当地定居和灭绝动态如何响应非生物条件（例如温度和降雨），扩散限制和生物相互作用（例如竞争，促进作用或与天敌的相互作用） 。了解这些因素如何影响气候变化下的分布动态是一个主要的知识鸿沟，尤其是对于那些濒临灭绝的小范围和分散受限的植物物种而言。据认为，附生植物特别容易受到气候变化的影响，我们对导致它们分布的因素及其对气候变化的反应知之甚少。为了解决这个问题，我们利用了一个10年的数据集来了解当地兰花的占有率金钱豹（Lepanthes rupestris）可以识别当地定居和灭绝动态的动因，并在多种气候变化情景下评估该种群的长期命运。
- 我们比较了290个动态居住模型预测卢氏乳杆菌（L. rupestris）种群的定殖和灭绝动态的能力。该模型集预测了不对称斑块连通性，苔藓面积，海拔，温度（最小，最大和可变性）和/或降雨的函数-定居-消灭动力学。
- 最佳模型预测，局部定居会随着不对称贴片连接性的增加而增加，但随着最低温度和最大温度变异性的增加而降低。最佳模型还预测，局部灭绝会随着最高温度的变化性增加而增加。在较小的斑块中，负面影响更为严重。
- 综合。总体而言，我们的结果证明了不对称的连通性，气候以及与苔藓区域的相互作用是殖民化和灭绝动力学的驱动因素。此外，我们的结果表明，不对称分散的附生植物可能难以在气候变化下持续存在，因为它们有限的连通性可能不足以抵消温度均值或可变性增加带来的负面影响。
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