Intervention planning for dengue requires reliable estimates of dengue transmission intensity. However, current maps of dengue risk provide estimates of disease burden or the boundaries of endemicity rather than transmission intensity. We therefore developed a global high-resolution map of dengue transmission intensity by fitting environmentally driven geospatial models to geolocated force of infection estimates derived from cross-sectional serological surveys and routine case surveillance data. We assessed the impact of interventions on dengue transmission and disease using Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes and the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine as specific examples. We predicted high transmission intensity in all continents straddling the tropics, with hot spots in South America (Colombia, Venezuela, and Brazil), Africa (western and central African countries), and Southeast Asia (Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines). We estimated that 105 [95% confidence interval (CI), 95 to 114] million dengue infections occur each year with 51 (95% CI, 32 to 66) million febrile disease cases. Our analysis suggests that transmission-blocking interventions such as Wolbachia, even at intermediate efficacy (50% transmission reduction), might reduce global annual disease incidence by up to 90%. The Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, targeting only seropositive recipients, might reduce global annual disease incidence by 20 to 30%, with the greatest impact in high-transmission settings. The transmission intensity map presented here, and made available for download, may help further assessment of the impact of dengue control interventions and prioritization of global public health efforts.

中文翻译：

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绘制登革热传播强度的全球变化图。

登革热干预计划需要对登革热传播强度进行可靠估计。然而，目前的登革热风险图提供了疾病负担或流行边界的估计值，而不是传播强度的估计值。因此，我们通过将环境驱动的地理空间模型拟合到从横截面血清学调查和常规病例监测数据得出的地理定位感染力估计值，开发了登革热传播强度的全球高分辨率地图。我们以感染沃尔巴克氏体的蚊子和赛诺菲-巴斯德疫苗作为具体例子，评估了干预措施对登革热传播和疾病的影响。我们预测横跨热带的所有大陆都具有高传播强度，南美洲有热点（哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉和巴西），非洲（西非和中非国家）和东南亚（泰国、印度尼西亚和菲律宾）。我们估计每年发生 105 [95% 置信区间 (CI)，95 至 114] 百万登革热感染，其中 51 (95% CI，32 至 66) 百万发热性疾病病例发生。我们的分析表明，阻止传播的干预措施，如沃尔巴克氏菌，即使在中等疗效（减少 50% 的传播）下，也可能将全球年度疾病发病率降低多达 90%。赛诺菲巴斯德疫苗仅针对血清反应阳性的接受者，可将全球年发病率降低 20% 至 30%，对高传播环境的影响最大。此处提供的传输强度图可供下载，