Abstract There is broad evidence of climate change causing shifts in fish distribution worldwide, but less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. Responses to climate‐driven shifts in a fishery may be constrained by existing management or institutional arrangements and technological settings. In order to understand how fisheries are responding to ocean warming, we investigate purse seine fleets targeting tropical tunas in the east Atlantic Ocean using effort and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data from 1991 to 2017. An analysis of the spatial change in effort using a centre of gravity approach and empirical orthogonal functions is used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in effort anomalies and investigate links to SSTA. Both analyses indicate that effort shifts southward from the equator, while no clear pattern is seen northward from the equator. Random forest models show that while technology and institutional settings better explain total effort, SSTA is playing a role when explaining the spatiotemporal changes of effort, together with management and international agreements. These results show the potential of management to minimize the impacts of climate change on fisheries activity. Our results provide guidance for improved understanding about how climate, management and governance interact in tropical tuna fisheries, with methods that are replicable and transferable. Future actions should take into account all these elements in order to plan successful adaptation.

中文翻译：

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热带金枪鱼渔业活动向南重新分布可以用技术和管理变革来解释

摘要 有广泛证据表明气候变化导致全球鱼类分布发生变化，但人们对渔业对这些变化的反应知之甚少。对气候驱动的渔业变化的反应可能受到现有管理或体制安排和技术设置的限制。为了了解渔业如何应对海洋变暖，我们利用 1991 年至 2017 年的努力量和海面温度异常 (SSTA) 数据调查了以东大西洋热带金枪鱼为目标的围网船队。使用重心方法和经验正交函数来评估努力异常的时空变化并研究与海温异常的联系。两项分析都表明，努力从赤道向南转移，但没有看到明显的模式从赤道向北转移。随机森林模型表明，虽然技术和制度设置可以更好地解释总体努力，但海温异常在解释努力的时空变化以及管理和国际协议时发挥着作用。这些结果表明，管理有潜力最大限度地减少气候变化对渔业活动的影响。我们的研究结果为更好地了解气候、管理和治理在热带金枪鱼渔业中如何相互作用以及可复制和可转让的方法提供了指导。未来的行动应考虑所有这些因素，以便规划成功的适应。