Abstract This study investigates the short-term (four days) atmospheric response to regionally high sea-surface temperature (SST) in the Tsushima Strait. During 18–22 August 2013, SST in the strait increased and cloud cover was scarce (sunny period). During 23–26 August, SST decreased and frequent rainfall was associated with a stationary front (rainy period). The moisture response to SST differed between the sunny and rainy periods. Ensemble-mean moisture variation induced by a regionally warm sea surface is well correlated with SST increases during the sunny period. However, they are not clearly correlated with SST increases during the rainy period when water vapor fluctuated because of frequent rainfall. The high SST resulted in locally enhanced precipitation in the central area of the warm core. Unlike the climatological response of precipitation to SST, the ensemble experiment shows that warm SSTs do not always enhance hourly rainfall because of SST-related changes in moisture from prior rainfall events. In a simulation that performs well in reproducing precipitation at Izuhara observatory (located in Tsushima Strait), high SSTs resulted in enhanced precipitation in the morning. Subsequently, water vapor decreased, leading to lower precipitation in the afternoon. In contrast, a low-SST experiment with the warm-SST core removed produced moisture concentrations that were higher than those in the high-SST experiment after weak rainfall during the morning. As a result, low SST led to greater precipitation in the afternoon. Thus, responses of hourly precipitation to SST should be carefully investigated by considering transient moisture variations during each rainfall event and related uncertainties in ensemble simulations.

中文翻译：

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2013年8月区域暖海面对对马海峡水分和​​降雨影响的集合模拟

摘要 本研究调查了对马海峡区域性高海面温度 (SST) 的短期（四天）大气响应。2013年8月18-22日，海峡海温升高，云量稀少（晴天）。8 月 23 日至 26 日，海温下降，频繁降雨与固定锋（雨季）有关。晴天和雨天对 SST 的水分反应不同。由区域温暖海面引起的整体平均湿度变化与晴天期间海温的增加密切相关。然而，由于频繁降雨导致水汽波动的雨季，它们与SST增加没有明显的相关性。高海温导致暖核中心区降水局部增强。与降水对 SST 的气候响应不同，集合实验表明，由于先前降雨事件与 SST 相关的水分变化，温暖的 SST 并不总是增强每小时降雨量。在伊豆原天文台（位于对马海峡）再现降水方面表现良好的模拟中，高海温导致早晨降水增强。随后，水汽减少，导致下午降水量减少。相比之下，去除温暖 SST 核心的低 SST 实验产生的水分浓度高于早上弱降雨后高 SST 实验中的水分浓度。因此，低海温导致下午降水量增加。因此，