In this study, the time series of toxic phytoplankton species collected between 2004 and 2018 from the Northern Adriatic, Šibenik Bay, and Mali Ston Bay was analyzed in relation to environmental (temperature, salinity, water column stability, and river flow) and meteorological parameters (precipitation and wind). Because of the mostly non-linear relation between biotic and abiotic parameters, self-organizing maps (SOM) were used to identify these relationships.

SOM analysis distinguished species of the genus Dinophysis from Gonyaulax spinifera and Lingulodinium polyedrum species, which better tolerate wind-induced disturbance. Among the Dinophysis species, Dinophysis fortii, Dinophysis tripos, and Dinophysis acuta preferred higher precipitation rate and river flow in addition to optimal temperatures. The abundances of Alexandrium species, which occurred more frequently in estuarine areas, were associated with river flow and maximum stable water column. Regardless of the ecological preferences of individual harmful algae, freshwater inflow-caused stratification is present in all clusters of environmental conditions associated with increased abundances of harmful algae in the SOM analysis. It is highly likely that stratification represents an important factor for the development and maintenance of HABs. The non-linear relationship between the NAO index and rainfall was noted, of which the most important for the development of harmful algae is the proportional correlation between the positive phase of the NAO index and higher rainfall, especially in winter and spring. Such conditions are conducive to the development of harmful algae because, with the increase in temperature accompanying the positive phase of the NAO index, increased rainfall further stimulates their growth. This can be achieved either through nutrient yields or through higher freshwater inflow that further stabilizes the water column.

在这项研究中，分析了2004年至2018年之间从北亚得里亚海，希贝尼克湾和马里斯顿湾收集的有毒浮游植物种类的时间序列，并将其与环境（温度，盐度，水柱稳定性和河流流量）和气象参数相关联（降水和风）。由于生物参数和非生物参数之间大多是非线性关系，因此使用自组织图（SOM）来识别这些关系。

SOM分析区分属种鳍藻从具刺膝沟和Lingulodinium polyedrum种，其中更好地耐受风引起的干扰。之间的鳍藻物种，鳍藻fortii，鳍藻Tripos公司，和鳍藻蚧优选除了最佳温度较高的沉淀速率和河水流动。亚历山大的丰富在河口地区更常见的物种与河水流量和最大稳定水柱有关。不管单个有害藻类的生态偏好如何，在SOM分析中，与有害藻类数量增加相关的所有环境条件簇中都存在淡水流入引起的分层。分层很可能代表了HAB的开发和维护的重要因素。注意到了NAO指数与降雨之间的非线性关系，其中对有害藻类发展最重要的是NAO指数的正相与较高降雨之间的比例相关性，尤其是在冬季和春季。这些条件有利于有害藻类的生长，因为，随着NAO指数处于正值，温度升高，降雨增加进一步刺激了它们的生长。这可以通过养分产量或更高的淡水流入量来进一步稳定水柱来实现。