Abstract Cross-shore profile response to energetic wave events is challenging to predict because the physics are poorly understood and wave and topographic data are often sparse or unknown. Six events with varying duration, wave intensity and beach slopes are used to calibrate and assess two process-based cross-shore models, CShore and XBeach, at two southern California beaches. Model performance is quantitatively evaluated using high resolution spatiotemporal survey observations along with Brier Skill Scores (BSS) and a Beach Elevation Change Error (BECE) metric that evaluates alongshore-averaged upper beach volume predictions. XBeach is tested with default and site-calibrated parameters. Calibration improved skill for all profiles and events, however XBeach skill scores often remained low and in no case correctly predicted the offshore bar formation. Notably, XBeach is sensitive to the beach profile’s calibration depth extent. Upper beach calibration produced significantly different skill than when the full profile was considered. CShore was tested using both the ’Atlantic’ and ’Pacific’ parameters. Both models predict profile change with limited skill. In their present forms, CShore and XBeach are unable to accurately predict beach profile change on these typical southern California beaches, but when calibrated may provide qualitatively useful beach face erosion estimates.

中文翻译：

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加利福尼亚南部海滩剖面演化过程数值模型的校准与评估

摘要 对高能波浪事件的跨岸剖面响应很难预测，因为对物理学知之甚少，波浪和地形数据通常很少或未知。六个具有不同持续时间、波浪强度和海滩坡度的事件用于校准和评估两个基于过程的跨海岸模型，CShore 和 XBeach，位于加利福尼亚南部的两个海滩。使用高分辨率时空调查观察以及 Brier 技能评分 (BSS) 和海滩高程变化误差 (BECE) 指标对模型性能进行定量评估，该指标用于评估沿岸平均上海滩体积预测。XBeach 使用默认参数和现场校准参数进行测试。校准改进了所有配置文件和事件的技能，然而，XBeach 技能分数通常仍然很低，并且在任何情况下都无法正确预测海上酒吧的形成。值得注意的是，XBeach 对海滩剖面的校准深度范围很敏感。与考虑完整剖面时相比，上海滩校准产生了显着不同的技能。CShore 使用“大西洋”和“太平洋”参数进行了测试。两种模型都以有限的技能预测轮廓变化。在目前的形式中，CShore 和 XBeach 无法准确预测这些典型的南加州海滩的海滩剖面变化，但经过校准后，可以提供定性有用的海滩侵蚀估计。CShore 使用“大西洋”和“太平洋”参数进行了测试。两种模型都以有限的技能预测轮廓变化。在目前的形式中，CShore 和 XBeach 无法准确预测这些典型的南加州海滩的海滩剖面变化，但经过校准后，可以提供定性有用的海滩侵蚀估计。CShore 使用“大西洋”和“太平洋”参数进行了测试。两种模型都以有限的技能预测轮廓变化。在目前的形式中，CShore 和 XBeach 无法准确预测这些典型的南加州海滩的海滩剖面变化，但经过校准后，可以提供定性有用的海滩侵蚀估计。