Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective.,Environmental Science & Technology

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Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective.
Environmental Science & Technology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-02-04 , DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.9b07086
Inari Helle _{1,

2} , Jussi Mäkinen ₃ , Maisa Nevalainen ₃ , Mawuli Afenyo ₄ , Jarno Vanhatalo _{3,

5}

Affiliation

Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying species-specific exposure potential and sensitivity to oil. It quantifies risk with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one to compare risks over large geographic areas, and produces information on a meaningful scale for decision-making. We demonstrate the method by assessing the short-term risks oil spills pose to polar bears, ringed seals, and walrus in the Kara Sea, the western part of the Northern Sea Route. The risks differ considerably between species, spatial locations, and seasons. Our results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil in the Arctic but show that we should not underestimate the risks of lighter oils either, as these oils can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. Our results also highlight the importance of spatially explicit season-specific oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic and that environmental variability and the lack of data are a major source of uncertainty related to the oil spill impacts.

中文翻译：

溢油对北极海洋生态系统的影响：定量和概率风险评估的观点。

海事事故造成的石油泄漏给北极环境造成了人们鲜为人知的风险。我们提出了一种新颖的概率方法来定量评估这些风险。我们的方法考虑了时空变化的种群分布，油的扩散以及季节性变化的物种特异性暴露潜力和对油的敏感性。它通过明确的不确定性估计来量化风险，使人们能够比较大地理区域的风险，并以有意义的规模生成信息以供决策。我们通过评估北海路线西部卡拉海的漏油事件对北极熊，环状海豹和海象造成的短期风险来证明该方法。物种，空间位置和季节之间的风险差异很大。我们的结果支持目前在北极禁止使用重质燃料油的愿望，但表明我们也不应低估轻油的风险，因为这些油比重油污染的面积更大。我们的研究结果还强调了在北极进行空间明确的特定季节溢油风险评估的重要性，并且环境多变性和数据不足是与溢油影响相关的不确定性的主要来源。

更新日期：2020-02-06

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