Abstract Dealing with hazardous environments such as hydrogen poses considerable risks to property, people, and the environment. Leak frequency analysis is a method of understanding the characteristics of risks at hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs). This paper proposes leak rate estimation using time-based evaluation methods that utilize historical HRS accident information. In addition, leak frequency estimates from another two methods (non-parametric and leak-hole-size) were examined. In the non-parametric approach, the leak frequency is estimated based on a Bayesian update. The results from these three approaches are summarized to understand the trend of leak rate data. The leak rate data from the time-based method displays a similar trend to the leak size based method. However, the non-parametric method tends to be conservative due to high failure observations (new evidences) during the Bayesian update. Finally, the unrevealed leak time was calculated as a function of the leak frequency. The quantitative insights of this study can be used to set performance standards for the availability and reliability in the operation and maintenance of HRSs.

中文翻译：

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使用贝叶斯和频率论方法对氢基技术进行泄漏频率分析

摘要 处理氢气等危险环境会给财产、人员和环境带来相当大的风险。泄漏频率分析是了解加氢站 (HRS) 风险特征的一种方法。本文提出了使用基于时间的评估方法的泄漏率估计，该方法利用历史 HRS 事故信息。此外，还检查了另外两种方法（非参数和泄漏孔尺寸）的泄漏频率估计。在非参数方法中，基于贝叶斯更新估计泄漏频率。总结这三种方法的结果以了解泄漏率数据的趋势。基于时间的方法的泄漏率数据显示出与基于泄漏尺寸的方法相似的趋势。然而，由于贝叶斯更新期间的高失败观察（新证据），非参数方法趋于保守。最后，作为泄漏频率的函数计算未揭示的泄漏时间。本研究的定量见解可用于为 HRS 的运行和维护中的可用性和可靠性设定性能标准。