In the tropical region, climate change significantly affects the morphology of river channels as well as water resources. In this study, the climate change impact on hydrology and morphology is assessed in the Chindwin River Basin, Myanmar. Future climate data was developed by an ensemble of four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) using a performance-based weight method, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two models were developed: a hydrological model (MIKE NAM) to simulate future discharge and a morphology model (MIKE 21 Flow Model) to simulate morphological changes under climate change scenarios. The results reveal that the mean annual discharge over the period from 2018 to 2040 (23 years) is projected to increase by 13.9 and 22.8%, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The annual hydrograph shows a sharp rise and the recession of monsoon flood, with multiple peaks replacing the single peak observed during the baseline period (1975–2005) with a delay in peak of 8–10 days. The extreme events (floods) are expected to get more severe in the future in terms of frequency and magnitude compared to the baseline period. The study further shows that under extreme rainfall events, the left bank of the upstream areas is projected to experience severe morphological changes, accompanied by severe flood damage. As high flows become amplified due to climate change in the near future, morphological changes will exacerbate in the same period. Sediment deposition will increase the flood risk and river bank instability, constraining navigability in the river and adversely affecting riverine communities. The study reveals that mathematical modelling helps to identify the impacts of climate change on hydrology and morphology, and that knowledge coupled with an assessment of the vulnerability associated with lives and livelihoods, could help planners and policymakers to develop adaptation strategies and take meaningful action to mitigate the impact.

在热带地区，气候变化会显着影响河道和水资源的形态。在这项研究中，评估了缅甸钦德温河流域的气候变化对水文和形态的影响。未来的气候数据是由四个区域气候模式（RCM）结合使用基于性能的权重方法，在两个代表性的浓度路径（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下开发的。开发了两个模型：模拟未来排放的水文模型（MIKE NAM）和模拟气候变化情景下形态变化的形态模型（MIKE 21 Flow Model）。结果显示，根据RCP 4.5和8.5，预计2018年至2040年（23年）期间的年均排放量将分别增加13.9％和22.8％。年度水文图显示了季风洪水的急剧上升和衰退，用多个峰值代替了在基线期（1975-2005年）观察到的单个峰值，峰值延迟了8-10天。与基准期相比，预计极端事件（洪水）的频率和强度在将来会变得更加严重。研究还表明，在极端降雨事件下，预计上游地区左岸将经历严重的形态变化，并伴有严重的洪灾破坏。由于不久的将来由于气候变化而导致流量增加，形态变化将在同一时期加剧。沉积物的沉积将增加洪水的风险和河岸的不稳定性，从而限制河流的通航性并对河流社区产生不利影响。