Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision-makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975-2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015-2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%-80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.

中文翻译：

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在土地利用决策模拟中考虑多种生态系统服务：它会减少热带森林砍伐吗？

热带森林的转变是全球环境变化的主要原因之一。重要环境服务的丧失促使人们呼吁在决策中除了社会经济目标之外还要整合生态系统服务（ES）。为了测试土地利用决策中考虑 ES 和社会经济目标的效果，我们开发了一种新的动态方法来模拟热带山林的毁林情景。我们将土地分配的多目标优化与创新方法相结合，以考虑每个目标的不确定性空间。这些不确定性空间解释了决策者之间潜在的可变性，他们可能对未来有不同的期望。当仅优化社会经济目标时，该模型在预测的土地利用分配（2015-2070）中延续了过去的森林砍伐趋势（1975-2015）。基于生物量生产、碳储存、气候和水调节以及土壤质量等指标，我们表明，除了社会经济目标之外，考虑多种ES对土地利用分配具有异质性影响。如果天然林比例低于38%，它可以挽救一些天然林，而一旦天然林比例低于10%，可以停止砍伐森林。然而，对于森林比例较高的景观（在我们的研究中为 38%-80%），在其指标高度不确定性下考虑多个 ES 可能会加速森林砍伐。对于这种多功能景观，主要有两个影响：（a）加速扩大多样化的非自然区域，以提高指标水平；（b）增加景观多样化以维持多重生态系统，减少天然林的比例。只有当将维管束植物物种丰富度作为优化的明确目标时，森林砍伐才会持续减少。因此，以多功能景观为目标可能与减少森林砍伐的目标相冲突，这是我们第一次可以在这里量化的目标。我们的研究结果有助于确定可能发生这种冲突的景观类型，并更好地协调各自的政策。