Species distribution models are frequently used to anticipate the expansion of invasive species under the assumption that climate affects habitat conditions. Here, we investigated the influence of two additional factors that determine the spread, establishment, and impact of aquatic organisms: propagule pressure and water chemistry.

Our case study species is the New Zealand Mud Snail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum, Tateidae, Mollusca), one of the 100 worst invasive species in Europe.

We calibrated species distribution models combining three types of indicators (climate, water chemistry, and propagule pressure), and two scales (Iberian Peninsula vs. Ebro River catchment) using the Maxent algorithm.

Propagule pressure improved the accuracy of models and enlarged the area susceptible to invasion by 16% at the Iberian Peninsula scale, and by 36% at the catchment scale. Among propagule pressure indicators, accessibility was the single most important indicator of the species distribution (33–35% contribution), illustrating the role of human-mediated dispersal for aquatic invaders.

The catchment model integrating climate, propagule pressure and water chemistry indicators was the best option to prioritize river segments most vulnerable to colonization, characterized by high temperature, human influence and water pollution (nitrate concentration).

High risk areas according to our models include the Mediterranean and North Atlantic coasts, central Spain, and the lowlands of the Ebro River catchment.

Based on this study, we recommend including indicators of propagule pressure such as accessibility to reflect the opportunity to invade, and using water chemistry to further prioritize the river stretches most suitable to invasion. We conclude that distribution models integrating indicators at multiple scales are feasible, consistent in their predictions across scales, and show great potential to optimize management resources towards the prevention and early eradication of aquatic invasive species.

在气候影响栖息地条件的假设下，经常使用物种分布模型来预测入侵物种的扩展。在这里，我们调查了决定水生生物扩散，建立和影响的两个其他因素的影响：繁殖压力和水化学。

我们的案例研究的物种是新西兰泥蜗牛（Potamopyrgus antipodarum，Tateidae，软体动物），它是欧洲100种入侵性最强的物种之一。

我们使用Maxent算法对物种分布模型进行了校准，该模型结合了三种类型的指标（气候，水化学和繁殖压力）和两个尺度（伊比利亚半岛与埃布罗河流域）。

传播压力提高了模型的准确性，在伊比利亚半岛规模上使易受侵袭的面积扩大了16％，在集水区规模上扩大了36％。在繁殖压力指标中，可及性是物种分布的最重要指标（贡献33-35％），说明了人类介导的扩散对水生入侵者的作用。

结合气候，繁殖压力和水化学指标的集水模型是确定最易定居的河段的最佳选择，这些河段具有高温，人为影响和水污染（硝酸盐浓度）的特征。

根据我们的模型，高风险地区包括地中海和北大西洋沿岸，西班牙中部以及埃布罗河流域的低地。

基于这项研究，我们建议包括繁殖压力指标，例如可及性以反映入侵的机会，并使用水化学方法进一步确定最适合入侵的河流段的优先级。我们得出结论，整合多尺度指标的分布模型是可行的，其跨尺度的预测是一致的，并显示出优化管理资源以预防和及早消除水生入侵物种的巨大潜力。