Coastal water supply infrastructure systems are exposed to saltwater intrusion exacerbated by sea-level rise stressors. To enable assessing the long-term resilience of these systems to the impact of sea-level rise, this study developed a novel hazards-humans-infrastructure nexus framework that enables the integrated modeling of stochastic processes of hazard scenarios, decision-theoretic elements of adaptation planning processes of utility agencies, and dynamic processes of water supply infrastructure performance. Using the proposed framework and data collected from South Miami-Dade service area, a multi-agent simulation model was created to conduct exploratory assessments of the long-term resilience of water supply infrastructure under various sea-level rise scenarios and adaptation approaches. The results showed the capability of the proposed model for scenario landscape generation to discover robust adaptation pathways for enhanced infrastructure resilience under uncertainty. The analysis results could provide actionable scientific information to water infrastructure managers to improve their adaptation planning and investment decision-making processes.

沿海供水基础设施系统暴露于海平面上升压力加剧的盐水入侵。为了评估这些系统对海平面上升的影响的长期复原力，本研究开发了一种新颖的危害-人类-基础设施联系框架，该框架能够对危害情景的随机过程，适应的决策理论要素进行集成建模。公用事业机构的规划流程以及供水基础设施绩效的动态流程。使用拟议的框架和从南迈阿密-戴德服务区收集的数据，创建了一种多主体模拟模型，以对各种海平面上升情景和适应方法下供水基础设施的长期复原力进行探索性评估。结果表明，提出的模型用于场景景观生成的能力能够发现不确定性下增强基础设施弹性的鲁棒适应路径。分析结果可以为水利基础设施管理者提供可行的科学信息，以改善他们的适应计划和投资决策过程。