This paper discusses the real-time prediction of queue lengths from probe vehicles for the Bunch arrival headways at an isolated intersection for undersaturated conditions. The paper incorporates the bunching effect of the traffic into the evaluation of the accuracy of the predictions as a function of proportion of probe vehicles to entire vehicle population. Formulations are presented for predicting the expected queue length and its variance based on Negative Exponential and Bunched Exponential vehicle headways. Numerical results for both vehicle headway types are documented to show how prediction errors behave by the volume to capacity ratio and probe proportions. It is found that the Poisson arrivals generate conservative confidence intervals and demand higher probe proportions compared to Bunched Exponential headways at the same arrival rate and probe proportion.

中文翻译：

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具有成群到达车头时距的探测车问题的队列长度预测分析

本文讨论了在不饱和条件下，针对孤立交叉路口的束到达车头时距，从探测车辆实时预测队列长度。该论文将交通的聚集效应纳入预测准确性的评估中，作为探测车辆占整个车辆数量的比例的函数。提出了基于负指数和成群指数车辆间距预测预期队列长度及其方差的公式。记录了两种车辆时距类型的数值结果，以显示体积与容量比和探针比例的预测误差如何表现。