The 2015–2016 El Niño provided insight into how low-inflow estuaries might respond to future climate regimes, including high sea levels and more intense waves. High waves and water levels coupled with low rainfall along the Southern California coastline provided the opportunity to examine how extreme ocean forcing impacts estuaries independently from fluvial events. From November 2015 to April 2016, water levels were measured in 13 Southern California estuaries, including both intermittently closed and perennially open estuaries with varying watershed size, urban development, and management practices. Elevated ocean water levels caused raised water levels and prolonged inundation in all of the estuaries studied. Water levels inside perennially open estuaries mirrored ocean water levels, while those inside intermittently closed estuaries (ICEs) exhibited enhanced higher-high water levels during large waves, and tides were truncated at low tides due to a wave-built sand sill at the mouth, resulting in elevated detided water levels. ICEs closed when sufficient wave-driven sand accretion formed a barrier berm across the mouth separating the estuary from the ocean, the height of which can be estimated using estuarine lower-low water levels. During the 2015–2016 El Niño, a greater number of Southern California ICEs closed than during a typical year and ICEs that close annually experienced longer than normal closures. Overall, sill accretion and wave exposure were important contributing factors to individual estuarine response to ocean conditions. Understanding how estuaries respond to increased sea levels and waves and the factors that influence closures will help managers develop appropriate adaptation strategies.

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2015–2016年厄尔尼诺现象对海平面和海浪升高对南加州河口的影响

2015-2016年的厄尔尼诺现象提供了有关流入量低的河口如何应对未来气候状况（包括高海平面和更强烈的海浪）的见解。高浪和水位加上南加州海岸线沿线的降雨不足，提供了机会来检验极端海洋强迫如何独立于河流事件而影响河口。从2015年11月到2016年4月，对南加州的13个河口进行了水位测量，包括间歇性关闭和常年开放的河口，这些流域的大小，城市发展和管理方式各不相同。海洋水位升高导致所有研究的河口水位升高和淹没时间延长。常年开放的河口内的水位反映了海洋水位，而间歇性封闭河口（ICEs）内的水在大浪中表现出较高的高水位，并且由于在河口处筑有波浪形的沙坎，潮汐在低潮时被截断，导致水位升高。当足够的波浪驱动的沙子积聚形成将河口与海洋分开的跨河口的屏障时，ICE就会关闭，可以使用河口的低-低水位来估算其高度。在2015–2016年厄尔尼诺现象期间，南加州的ICE停运数量比典型年份多，每年停业的ICE停运时间要长于正常停运时间。总体而言，窗台堆积和波浪暴露是影响河口对海洋状况的重要因素。