Abstract Queensland’s rangelands are an important source for Australia’s pastoral food production. However, they are subject to significant climate variability and will be under increasing pressure as the climate changes, potentially leading to loss of productivity. Pasture growth fluctuates greatly due to rainfall variability, which unfortunately is the climate variable with the largest uncertainties in future projections for northern and eastern Australia. This sensitivity study examines the effect of climate change and its interaction with soil fertility and trees on pasture and livestock production in Queensland. Nine climate change sensitivities were tested in various combinations; an increase in air temperatures by a median projected value of +3 °C, rainfall changes of -20 %, -10 % and +10 % and an increase of carbon dioxide concentrations to 700 ppm. The GRASP model was used to assess the responses of pasture growth, pasture quality and cattle liveweight change per head. The most arid areas in western and south-western Queensland were the most sensitive to changes in rainfall. In contrast, the tropical north was the most resilient region. Southern and south-eastern Queensland benefitted from higher air temperatures producing greater pasture growth, quality and liveweight gain per head by extending the growing season and reducing frost during the winter months. The presence of trees competing for water and nitrogen increased the sensitivity of pasture to climate change, especially at higher carbon dioxide levels and lower rainfall. Increased carbon dioxide enhanced pasture growth and mitigated rainfall reductions by improving the water use efficiency of the plants. Thus, a warmer climate may create new opportunities in the south and south-east, but a warmer and drier climate in the western regions of Queensland is likely to reduce pasture and livestock production.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚昆士兰州的原生牧场和肉牛对气候变化的空间变化做出反应

摘要 昆士兰的牧场是澳大利亚牧区粮食生产的重要来源。然而，它们受到显着的气候变率的影响，并且随着气候变化将面临越来越大的压力，可能导致生产力下降。由于降雨量的变化，牧场的生长波动很大，不幸的是，这是澳大利亚北部和东部未来预测中不确定性最大的气候变量。这项敏感性研究考察了气候变化及其与土壤肥力和树木的相互作用对昆士兰牧场和牲畜生产的影响。以各种组合测试了九种气候变化敏感性；气温升高+3°C的中值预测值，降雨量变化-20%，-10 % 和 +10 % 以及二氧化碳浓度增加到 700 ppm。GRASP 模型用于评估牧草生长、牧草质量和牛每头活重变化的响应。昆士兰西部和西南部最干旱的地区对降雨变化最为敏感。相比之下，热带北部是最具弹性的地区。昆士兰南部和东南部受益于较高的气温，延长了生长季节并减少了冬季的霜冻，从而提高了牧场的生长、质量和人均活重。争夺水和氮的树木的存在增加了牧场对气候变化的敏感性，尤其是在二氧化碳水平较高和降雨量较低的情况下。通过提高植物的用水效率，二氧化碳的增加促进了牧场的生长并减轻了降雨量的减少。因此，温暖的气候可能会在南部和东南部创造新的机会，但昆士兰西部地区温暖干燥的气候可能会减少牧场和牲畜的生产。