National bodies in Great Britain (GB) have expressed concern over young stock health and welfare and identified calf survival as a priority; however, no national data have been available to quantify mortality rates. The aim of this study was to quantify the temporal incidence rate, distributional features, and factors affecting variation in mortality rates in calves in GB since 2011. The purpose was to provide information to national stakeholder groups to inform resource allocation both for knowledge exchange and future research. Cattle birth and death registrations from the national British Cattle Movement Service were analyzed to determine rates of both slaughter and on-farm mortality. The number of births and deaths registered between 2011 and 2018 within GB were 21.2 and 21.6 million, respectively. Of the 3.3 million on-farm deaths, 1.8 million occurred before 24 mo of age (54%) and 818,845 (25%) happened within the first 3 mo of age. The on-farm mortality rate was 3.87% by 3 mo of age, remained relatively stable over time, and was higher for male calves (4.32%) than female calves (3.45%). Dairy calves experience higher on farm mortality rates than nondairy (beef) calves in the first 3 mo of life, with 6.00 and 2.86% mortality rates, respectively. The 0- to 3-mo death rate at slaughterhouse for male dairy calves has increased from 17.40% in 2011 to 26.16% in 2018, and has remained low (<0.5%) for female dairy calves and beef calves of both sexes. Multivariate adaptive regression spline models were able to explain a large degree of the variation in mortality rates (coefficient of determination = 96%). Mean monthly environmental temperature and month of birth appeared to play an important role in neonatal on-farm mortality rates, with increased temperatures significantly reducing mortality rates. Taking the optimal month of birth and environmental temperature as indicators of the best possible environmental conditions, maintaining these conditions throughout the year would be expected to result in a reduction in annual 0- to 3-mo mortality of 37,571 deaths per year, with an estimated economic saving of around £11.6 million (USD $15.3 million) per annum. National cattle registers have great potential for monitoring trends in calf mortality and can provide valuable insights to the cattle industry. Environmental conditions play a significant role in calf mortality rates and further research is needed to explore how to optimize conditions to reduce calf mortality rates in GB.

中文翻译：

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英国小牛死亡率的定量分析。

英国的国家机构对年轻人的健康和福祉表示关注，并将犊牛的生存作为优先事项；但是，尚无用于量化死亡率的国家数据。这项研究的目的是量化自2011年以来英国小牛的暂时发病率，分布特征和影响小牛死亡率变化的因素。目的是向国家利益相关者群体提供信息，为知识交流和未来分配资源研究。分析了英国国家牛运动服务局的牛出生和死亡登记，以确定屠宰率和农场死亡率。2011年至2018年，GB中的出生和死亡人数分别为21.2和2160万。在330万人的农场死亡人数中，有1。800万发生在24个月前（54％），818,845（25％）发生在前3个月内。到3个月大时，农场的死亡率为3.87％，随着时间的推移保持相对稳定，雄性犊牛（4.32％）高于雌性犊牛（3.45％）。在出生后的头三个月，奶牛的死亡率比非奶牛的死亡率高，分别为6.00％和2.86％。雄性奶牛屠宰场的0至3个月死亡率从2011年的17.40％增加到2018年的26.16％，而雌性奶牛犊和男女的牛犊的死亡率仍然较低（<0.5％）。多元自适应回归样条模型能够解释死亡率的很大程度的变化（确定系数= 96％）。平均每月环境温度和出生月份似乎在新生儿农场死亡率中起重要作用，温度升高显着降低了死亡率。以最佳的出生月份和环境温度作为最佳环境条件的指标，全年维持这些条件可望导致每年0到3个月的死亡率降低，每年37,571例死亡，估计每年可节省约1,160万英镑（1,530万美元）的经济效益。国家牲畜登记处具有监测小牛死亡率趋势的巨大潜力，可以为养牛业提供有价值的见解。