BACKGROUND Bangkok plays a central role in the commerce of Thailand. This study aimed to characterize the district-level spatial-temporal patterns of dengue in Thailand and explore if a dengue peak in Bangkok led the peaks of dengue in other Thai provinces. METHODS Monthly dengue data at district level in Thailand from January 2004 to December 2017 were obtained and used to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of dengue in Thailand. As our seasonal decomposition and cross-correlation analyses showed that dengue in Bangkok peaked in November, which was a few months after the dengue peak in most other provinces, we used a time-series generalized linear model to explore if there was another province in which the dengue case number was most predictive of dengue case numbers in other Thai provinces. RESULTS The highest district-level annual dengue incidence rates (per 10,000) in the three time periods (i.e. 2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2017) were 58.08 (Samphanthawong), 85.93 (Mueang Krabi), and 66.60 (Mae Sariang), respectively. Dengue incidence rates in the western part of Northern Thailand, southern part of Central Thailand, southern part of Eastern Thailand, and Southern Thailand were higher than in other regions. Dengue in most districts of Thailand peaked in June, July or August, but dengue peaks in all districts of Bangkok occurred in November. The number of dengue cases in Nakhon Ratchasima was most predictive of the number of dengue cases in other provinces in Thailand by a one-month lag. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that the dengue peak in Bangkok did not lead the peaks of dengue in other Thai provinces. Future research exploring how changes in socio-ecological factors (e.g. road network and climate factors) in Nakhon Ratchasima have affected the transmission of dengue in Thailand might shed some new light on the prevention and control of dengue.

中文翻译：

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曼谷在泰国的登革热流行中是否发挥核心作用？

背景技术曼谷在泰国的商业中起着核心作用。这项研究旨在表征泰国登革热的地区级时空格局，并探讨曼谷的登革热高峰是否引领了泰国其他省份的登革热高峰。方法获得2004年1月至2017年12月泰国地区级登革热月度数据，并将其用于评估泰国登革热的空间和季节格局。由于我们的季节性分解和互相关分析表明，曼谷的登革热在11月达到顶峰，这比大多数其他省份的登革热高峰都晚了几个月，因此我们使用时间序列广义线性模型来研究是否还有一个省份登革热病例数最能预测泰国其他省份的登革热病例数。结果在三个时间段（即2004-2008年，2009-2013年和2014-2017年），地区登革热年度最高发病率（每10,000人）是58.08（Samphanthawong），85.93（Mueang Krabi）和66.60（Mae Sariang） ）， 分别。泰国北部的西部，泰国中部的南部，泰国东部的南部和泰国南部的登革热发病率高于其他地区。泰国大部分地区的登革热在6月，7月或8月达到高峰，而曼谷所有地区的登革热高峰则在11月出现。Nakhon Ratchasima的登革热病例数最能预测泰国其他省份的登革热病例数，但滞后了一个月。结论我们的结果表明，曼谷的登革热高峰没有超过泰国其他省份的登革热高峰。