Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land-use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’, where abrupt, nonlinear change in climate occurs, such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic and land-use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output that are an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear to be prohibitive in this instance.

预计气候变化将影响农业用地。不断积累温度和水的变化量可以改变不同农业活动的相对盈利能力，并促进土地利用变化。还有可能产生高影响力的“气候临界点”，在这种情况下，气候会发生突然的非线性变化，例如大西洋子午线翻转循环（AMOC）可能崩溃。在这里，我们使用来自英国的数据，开发了一种方法来分析气候临界点对土地利用和农业经济成果的影响。我们表明，这一临界点对经济和土地使用的影响可能包括广泛停止可耕种农业，农业产出损失比没有AMOC崩溃的气候变化影响大一个数量级。