Increasing penetration of solar and wind energy can reduce the reliability of power generation systems. This can be mitigated by e.g.; low-carbon dispatchable hydropower and baseload biomass power plants. However, long-term supply potential for those sources is often uncertain, and biomass can also be used for biofuel production. The purpose of this study is to assess the interplay between uncertain supply potential of biomass and hydropower, intersectoral competition and reliability on a low carbon power system for 2050, with Brazil as case study, using a soft-link between an energy model and a power system model. Hydropower acts as a balancing agent for solar and wind energy, even under lower hydropower supply potential. When less biomass is available, low carbon transportation is met more with electric cars instead of ethanol cars, leading to an increase in electric load for charging their batteries. The charging strategy determines whether peak load increases substantially; after commuting, or lowers; in off-peak hours. This shows the importance of using a soft-link between the high temporal resolution power system model to assess the reliability, and a least cost-optimization model to assess the interplay between resource availability and intersectoral competition of low-carbon power systems.

中文翻译：

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资源可用性、跨部门竞争和可靠性之间的相互作用如何影响巴西 2050 年的低碳发电组合？

增加太阳能和风能的渗透会降低发电系统的可靠性。这可以通过例如减轻; 低碳可调度水电和基荷生物质发电厂。然而，这些来源的长期供应潜力往往不确定，生物质也可用于生物燃料生产。本研究的目的是评估生物质和水电的不确定供应潜力、跨部门竞争和 2050 年低碳电力系统可靠性之间的相互作用，以巴西为案例研究，使用能源模型和电力之间的软链接系统模型。即使在水电供应潜力较低的情况下，水电仍可作为太阳能和风能的平衡剂。当可用的生物质较少时，更多地使用电动汽车而不是乙醇汽车来满足低碳交通，导致为其电池充电的电力负荷增加。充电策略决定峰值负荷是否大幅增加；上下班后，或降低；在非高峰时段。这表明在评估可靠性的高时间分辨率电力系统模型和评估资源可用性与低碳电力系统跨部门竞争之间相互作用的最低成本优化模型之间使用软链接的重要性。