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Training ensembles of faceted classification models for quantitative stock trading
Computing ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-11 , DOI: 10.1007/s00607-019-00776-7
Luca Cagliero , Paolo Garza , Giuseppe Attanasio , Elena Baralis

Forecasting the stock markets is among the most popular research challenges in finance. Several quantitative trading systems based on supervised machine learning approaches have been presented in literature. Recently proposed solutions train classification models on historical stock-related datasets. Training data include a variety of features related to different facets (e.g., stock price trends, exchange volumes, price volatility, news and public mood). To increase the accuracy of the predictions, multiple models are often combined together using ensemble methods. However, understanding which models should be combined together and how to effectively handle features related to different facets within different models are still open research questions. In this paper we investigate the use of ensemble methods to combine faceted classification models for supporting stock trading. To this aim, separate classification models are trained on each subset of features belonging to the same facet. They produce trading signals tailored to a specific facet. Signals are then combined together and filtered to generate a unified, multi-faceted recommendation. The experimental validation, performed on different markets and in different conditions, shows that, in many cases, some of the faceted models perform as good as or better than models trained on a mix of different features. An ensemble of the faceted recommendations makes the generated trading signals more profitable yet robust to draw-down periods.

中文翻译:

用于量化股票交易的分面分类模型的训练集合

预测股市是金融领域最受欢迎的研究挑战之一。文献中已经介绍了几种基于监督机器学习方法的量化交易系统。最近提出的解决方案在历史股票相关数据集上训练分类模型。训练数据包括与不同方面相关的各种特征(例如,股票价格趋势、交易量、价格波动、新闻和公众情绪)。为了提高预测的准确性,通常使用集成方法将多个模型组合在一起。然而,了解哪些模型应该组合在一起以及如何在不同模型中有效处理与不同方面相关的特征仍然是开放的研究问题。在本文中,我们研究了使用集成方法来组合分面分类模型以支持股票交易。为此,在属于同一方面的每个特征子集上训练单独的分类模型。它们产生针对特定方面量身定制的交易信号。然后将信号组合在一起并进行过滤以生成统一的、多方面的推荐。在不同市场和不同条件下进行的实验验证表明,在许多情况下,一些分面模型的表现与在不同特征混合上训练的模型一样好或更好。一组多面建议使生成的交易信号更有利可图,但在回撤期间更稳健。在属于同一方面的每个特征子集上训练单独的分类模型。它们产生针对特定方面量身定制的交易信号。然后将信号组合在一起并进行过滤以生成统一的、多方面的推荐。在不同市场和不同条件下进行的实验验证表明,在许多情况下,一些分面模型的表现与在不同特征混合上训练的模型一样好或更好。一组多面建议使生成的交易信号更有利可图,但在回撤期间更稳健。在属于同一方面的每个特征子集上训练单独的分类模型。它们产生针对特定方面量身定制的交易信号。然后将信号组合在一起并进行过滤以生成统一的、多方面的推荐。在不同市场和不同条件下进行的实验验证表明,在许多情况下,一些分面模型的表现与在不同特征混合上训练的模型一样好或更好。一组多面建议使生成的交易信号更有利可图,但在回撤期间更稳健。在不同市场和不同条件下的表现表明,在许多情况下,一些分面模型的表现与在不同特征混合上训练的模型一样好或更好。一组多面建议使生成的交易信号更有利可图,但在回撤期间更稳健。在不同市场和不同条件下的表现表明,在许多情况下,一些分面模型的表现与在不同特征混合上训练的模型一样好或更好。一组多面建议使生成的交易信号更有利可图,但在回撤期间更稳健。
更新日期:2020-01-11
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