Abstract Glacier retreat and runoff increases in the last few decades characterize conditions in the Kumalak River Basin, which is a headwater basin of the Tarim River with a catchment area of 12,800 km2. To address the scientific question of whether, and to what extent, the observed runoff increase can be attributed to enhanced glacier melt and/or increased precipitation, a glacier evolution scheme and precipitation-runoff model are developed. Using the glacio-hydrological model, we find that both glacier cover area and glacier mass in the study area have decreased from 1971 to 2010. On average, the contribution to total runoff from rainfall, glacier melt and snowmelt are 60.6%, 28.2% and 11.2%, respectively. Despite covering only 21.3% of the basin area, glacier areas contributed 43.3% (including rainfall, snowmelt and glacier melt) to the total runoff from our model estimates. Furthermore, as primary causes of increased runoff in response to the warmer and wetter climate over the period 1971–2010, contribution from increases in rainfall and glacier melt are 56.7% and 50.6%, respectively. In comparison to rainfall and glacier melt, snowmelt has a minor influence on runoff increase, accounting for −7.3%. The research has important implications for water resources development in this arid region and for some similar river basins in which glacial melt forms an important part of the hydrological cycle.

中文翻译：

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1971-2010年塔里木河源流域冰川融化和降水对径流增加的贡献分布

摘要 过去几十年冰川退缩和径流增加是塔里木河源头流域库马拉克河流域的特征，流域面积为 12,800 平方公里。为了解决观测到的径流增加是否以及在多大程度上归因于冰川融化和/或降水增加的科学问题，开发了冰川演化方案和降水-径流模型。使用冰川水文模型，我们发现研究区的冰川覆盖面积和冰川质量从1971年到2010年都有所减少。平均而言，降雨、冰川融化和融雪对总径流的贡献分别为60.6%、28.2%和28.2%。分别为 11.2%。尽管仅占流域面积的 21.3%，但冰川面积贡献了 43.3%（包括降雨、融雪和冰川融化）到我们模型估计的总径流。此外，作为响应 1971 年至 2010 年期间气候变暖和湿润而径流增加的主要原因，降雨量增加和冰川融化的贡献分别为 56.7% 和 50.6%。与降雨和冰川融化相比，融雪对径流增加的影响较小，占-7.3%。该研究对该干旱地区的水资源开发以及冰川融水是水文循环重要组成部分的一些类似流域具有重要意义。与降雨和冰川融化相比，融雪对径流增加的影响较小，占-7.3%。该研究对该干旱地区的水资源开发以及冰川融水是水文循环重要组成部分的一些类似流域具有重要意义。与降雨和冰川融化相比，融雪对径流增加的影响较小，占-7.3%。该研究对该干旱地区的水资源开发以及冰川融水是水文循环重要组成部分的一些类似流域具有重要意义。