Concentrations of building mass and insufficient greenery in cities are identified to contribute significantly to extended heat stress in the built environment, commonly known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This paper presents a scenario-based modelling based on climate change projections and potential changes in urban greenery in 2030 and 2090 in Adelaide. The model is based on regional climate change scenarios, potential urban surface cover alternatives and resulted urban microclimate variations in Adelaide, South Australia. Projected energy demand variations and corresponding carbon emission are calculated in each scenario. Results indicate that an ideal urban landscape transformation scenario with 30% tree canopy can effectively decrease the surface temperature by 1°C in winter and 3°C in summer by 2090. It is estimated that having greener and more heat resilient public spaces could save a total carbon emission of 140,000 tone CO2e in Adelaide annually compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Urban greenery may be used as a mean of increased urban life resilience to climate change by reducing surface temperature, increasing urban resilience and decreasing the energy demand during summer.

人们发现，城市中建筑质量的集中和绿色植物的不足会大大加剧建筑环境中的热应力，这通常被称为城市热岛效应。本文提出了一个基于情景的模型，该模型基于气候变化预测以及阿德莱德2030年和2090年城市绿化的潜在变化。该模型基于区域气候变化情景，潜在的城市表面覆盖替代方案以及南澳大利亚州阿德莱德市造成的城市小气候变化。在每种情况下都会计算预计的能源需求变化和相应的碳排放量。结果表明，理想的城市景观转换场景具有30％的树冠可以在2090年冬季将地表温度有效降低1°C，在夏季将表面温度有效降低3°C。据估计，与常规情况相比，阿德莱德拥有更绿色，更具耐热性的公共场所，每年可以节省140,000吨二氧化碳当量的总碳排放量。城市绿化可通过降低地表温度，增加城市适应力和减少夏季能源需求来用作提高城市生活对气候变化适应力的一种手段。