This article presents a new stochastic computational model for determining freeway capacity reduction as a result of lane‐changing activity. The probability density function for the maximum flow that can be sustained on a freeway for a given lane‐changing level is obtained. The results can be used to support freeway management strategies aiming to mitigate the negative consequences of lane‐changing in freeway capacity. A pilot test using empirical data obtained from the B‐23 freeway accessing the city of Barcelona proves the validity of the modeling approach.

中文翻译：

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变道和高速公路通行能力：贝叶斯推理随机模型

本文提出了一种新的随机计算模型，用于确定由于变道活动导致的高速公路通行能力下降。获得了在给定车道变换级别下高速公路上可维持的最大流量的概率密度函数。该结果可用于支持旨在减轻高速公路通行能力改变的不利影响的高速公路管理策略。使用从B-23高速公路进入巴塞罗那市获得的经验数据进行的试点测试证明了建模方法的有效性。