AIMS To evaluate the predictive ability of 2-h post-load glucose level in addition to fasting and 1-h glucose levels in predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS We examined a prospective population-based cohort study of 654 subjects without type 2 diabetes at baseline. All subjects underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), with measurement of glucose at 0, 60, and 120 min at baseline, and after 12 years in a follow-up survey. We evaluated the predictive properties of fasting, 1- and 2-h post-load glucose levels by comparing the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS We found that 2-h glucose concentration in the prediction model with fasting and 1-h glucose levels did not significantly increase the predictability of type 2 diabetes compared to a model only including fasting and 1-h glucose levels (AUC 0.83 vs. AUC 0.82, respectively; p = 0.23). The area under the ROC curve was the largest for 1-h glucose level (AUC 0.81), compared to fasting (AUC 0.71; p < 0.01) and 2-h glucose levels (AUC 0.72; p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Adding 2-h glucose to the model with fasting and 1-h glucose levels did not improve the predictability of new onset type 2 diabetes.

中文翻译：

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评估负荷后1小时的血糖水平，以预测未来的2型糖尿病。

目的评估评估空腹和1小时血糖水平后2小时血糖水平预测2型糖尿病风险的预测能力。方法我们对前瞻性基于队列的队列研究进行了研究，共研究了654名基线时无2型糖尿病的受试者。所有受试者均接受口服葡萄糖耐量测试（OGTT），在基线时0、60和120分钟以及随访调查12年后测量葡萄糖。我们通过比较接受者操作特征（ROC）曲线下的面积，评估了禁食，负荷后1和2小时葡萄糖水平的预测特性。结果我们发现，与仅包括空腹和1-h血糖水平的模型相比，具有空腹和1-h葡萄糖水平的预测模型中的2 h葡萄糖浓度并未显着提高2型糖尿病的可预测性（AUC 0.83与AUC分别为0.82； p = 0.23）。与禁食（AUC 0.71； p <0.01）和2-h葡萄糖水平（AUC 0.72； p = 0.01）相比，ROC曲线下的面积在1小时葡萄糖水平最大（AUC 0.81）。结论在空腹和1小时血糖水平的模型中添加2小时葡萄糖并不能改善新发2型糖尿病的可预测性。