The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8-9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect's climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system's failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8-9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.

中文翻译：

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飞蛾的归来：重新思考气候对昆虫暴发的影响。

令人惊讶的是，1982年后整个欧洲阿尔卑斯山的经常出现的落叶松芽孢杆菌（LBM; Zeiraphera diniana或griseana Gn。）爆发突然中断，因为过去1200多年或更长时间以来，种群每8-9年定期发生一次振荡。尽管生态生理学证据有限并且基本过程仍不确定，但气候变化已被证明是造成这种破坏的原因。2017年和2018年LBM种群高峰的意外，近期的回归提供了对该昆虫的气候敏感性的洞察力。在这里，我们结合气象和年代学数据，探讨了自1950年代初以来温度变化和大气环流对周期性LBM爆发的影响。欧洲冬季异常寒冷，与北大西洋涛动持续的负相位有关，这与1953年至1982年连续发生的四次流行病相吻合，并且由三种变暖引起的机制中的任何一种都可以解释其后的系统故障：（1）较高的卵死亡率，（2）卵孵化与叶片生长之间的异步性，以及（3）卵的向上移位暴发中心。为了证明LBM种群在亚暴发水平持续每8-9年振荡，该研究强调了冬季温度对昆虫及其寄主树之间营养相互作用的相关性，以及将自然与人为强迫气候分开的重要性。人口行为。（3）疫情爆发中心向上移动。为了证明LBM种群在亚暴发水平持续每8-9年振荡，该研究强调了冬季温度对昆虫及其寄主树之间营养相互作用的相关性，以及将自然与人为强迫气候分开的重要性。人口行为。（3）疫情爆发中心向上移动。为了证明LBM种群在亚暴发水平持续每8-9年振荡，该研究强调了冬季温度对昆虫及其寄主树之间营养相互作用的相关性，以及将自然与人为强迫气候分开的重要性。人口行为。