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Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target.
Science Advances ( IF 11.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-08 , DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9490
Chao Li 1 , Hermann Held 2 , Sascha Hokamp 2 , Jochem Marotzke 1
Affiliation  

The global temperature targets of limiting surface warming to below 2.0°C or even to 1.5°C have been widely accepted through the Paris Agreement. However, limiting surface warming has previously been proven insufficient to control sea level rise (SLR). Here, we explore a sea level target that is closer to coastal planning and associated adaptation measures than a temperature target. We find that a sea level target provides an optimal temperature overshoot profile through a physical constraint of SLR. The allowable temperature overshoot leads to lower mitigation costs and more effective long-term sea level stabilization compared to a temperature target leading to the same SLR by 2200. With the same mitigation cost as the temperature target, a SLR target could bring surface warming back to the targeted temperatures within this century, lead to a reduction of surface warming of the next century, and reduce and slow down SLR in the centuries thereafter.

中文翻译:

通过限制全球海平面上升作为低成本气候目标,可以找到最佳的温度超调曲线。

《巴黎协定》已广泛接受将表面温度限制在2.0°C甚至1.5°C以下的全球温度目标。然而,先前已证明有限的表面变暖不足以控制海平面上升(SLR)。在这里,我们探索的海平面目标比温度目标更接近沿海计划和相关的适应措施。我们发现海平面目标通过SLR的物理约束提供了最佳的温度超调曲线。相较于在2200年之前达到相同的SLR的温度目标,允许的温度超调量导致较低的减缓成本和更有效的长期海平面稳定度。与温度目标相同的减缓成本,SLR目标可以使表面变暖本世纪的目标温度,
更新日期:2020-01-09
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