Abstract This study analyses the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Banas River Basin, which is located in a semi-arid part of the state of Rajasthan in India. A bias-corrected ensemble mean of three CORDEX-SA driving GCM experiments (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and MPI-ESM-LR) was used with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict water yield and evapotranspiration for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099) under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and the results were compared with the data of a historical period (1979–2008). The SUFI-2 method was used for the calibration and validation of the SWAT model. The model was calibrated for the period of five years (1982–1986) and validated for the next five years (1987–1991). The values of R2, NSE, bR2, PBIAS, and RSR were, respectively, 0.78, 0.77, 0.61, 47.4 and 0.48 during the calibration period, and 0.71, 0.65, 0.60, 72.1 and 0.59 during the validation period. Trend analysis was also performed for annual future predicted flows using the Sen Slope method. From the results, it can be predicted that precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield will increase in all the three future periods under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Water availability in the future in the basin (zone wise) was identified using appropriate indicators. Per-capita water availability and meteorological variation were used to calculate future water availability and, considering these indicators, it can be concluded that zone 3 will better than the other zones. Zone 3 exhibits high values of per capita water availability and meteorological variation. This study will be useful in understanding the impacts of climate change on the water availability of the river basin and may help in overall water management in the present and the future.

中文翻译：

---

水文模型在印度半干旱河流域 CORDEX-南亚实验多模型集合评估水安全中的应用

摘要 本研究分析了气候变化对位于印度拉贾斯坦邦半干旱地区的巴纳斯河流域水资源的影响。三个 CORDEX-SA 驱动 GCM 实验（CNRM-CM5、CCSM4 和 MPI-ESM-LR）的偏差校正集合平均值与土壤水分评估工具 (SWAT) 一起用于预测未来三个时期的产水量和蒸散量（ 2011-2040、2041-2070 和 2071-2099）在两个代表性浓度路径情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）下，并将结果与​​历史时期（1979-2008）的数据进行比较。SUFI-2 方法用于 SWAT 模型的校准和验证。该模型在五年 (1982-1986) 期间进行了校准，并在接下来的五年 (1987-1991) 中进行了验证。R2、NSE、bR2、PBIAS 和 RSR 的值为，在校准期间分别为 0.78、0.77、0.61、47.4 和 0.48，在验证期间分别为 0.71、0.65、0.60、72.1 和 0.59。还使用 Sen Slope 方法对年度未来预测流量进行了趋势分析。从结果可以预测，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5下，未来三个时期的降水、蒸散量和产水量都将增加。流域未来的可用水量（按区域划分）是使用适当的指标确定的。人均可用水量和气象变化用于计算未来可用水量，考虑到这些指标，可以得出结论，3 区将优于其他区。第 3 区显示出人均可用水量和气象变化的高值。