Abstract Conceptualising wheat growth, yield and water productivity (WP) relationships with future climate change is necessary for sustainable agriculture and food security. This study assessed the climate change influences on wheat yield and WP with and without CO2 enrichment under semi-arid conditions. Statically bias-corrected climate change projections were coupled with AquaCrop model v5.0 to predict the wheat growth-span, yield and WP variations in Punjab, Pakistan. Acute wheat seasonal warming, characterised by sharp Tmin increase than Tmax, and substantial rainfall drops lead to short growth-spans and prompt ample yield reductions. However, CO2 enrichment promises to offset the negative wheat yield trends. Higher wheat yield vulnerability was detected for the late-season climate warming during the grain-filling stage. Wheat yield reduction and the limited influence of beneficial CO2-enrichment caused the future WP to decline consistently. CO2 enrichment featured a noteworthy mitigation role in sustaining and improving future wheat yield and WP. In conclusion, CO2 enrichment could impart some beneficial influences to wheat yield and WP, but would not fully eliminate the negative impacts of future climate warming under semi-arid conditions of Punjab, Pakistan. The reliability of such estimates demands a further in-depth examination of crop yield responses to carbon–temperature–water interactions under various field management conditions.

中文翻译：

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维持未来小麦产量和水生产力的气候驱动限制

摘要 将小麦生长、产量和水生产力 (WP) 与未来气候变化的关系概念化对于可持续农业和粮食安全是必要的。本研究评估了气候变化对半干旱条件下富集和不富集 CO2 的小麦产量和可湿性粉剂的影响。静态偏差校正的气候变化预测与 AquaCrop 模型 v5.0 相结合，以预测巴基斯坦旁遮普省的小麦生长跨度、产量和 WP 变化。急性小麦季节性变暖，其特点是 Tmin 比 Tmax 急剧增加，大量降雨量下降导致生长跨度短，并导致产量大幅下降。然而，二氧化碳富集有望抵消小麦产量的负面趋势。籽粒灌浆期后期气候变暖导致小麦产量脆弱性较高。小麦产量减少和有益的 CO2 富集的有限影响导致未来 WP 持续下降。二氧化碳富集在维持和提高未来小麦产量和可湿性方面具有显着的缓解作用。总之，在巴基斯坦旁遮普邦半干旱条件下，CO2 富集可以对小麦产量和 WP 产生一些有益影响，但不能完全消除未来气候变暖的负面影响。这种估计的可靠性需要进一步深入研究作物产量对不同田间管理条件下碳-温度-水相互作用的反应。CO2 富集可以对小麦产量和 WP 产生一些有益影响，但不能完全消除在巴基斯坦旁遮普省半干旱条件下未来气候变暖的负面影响。这种估计的可靠性需要进一步深入研究作物产量对不同田间管理条件下碳-温度-水相互作用的反应。CO2 富集可以对小麦产量和 WP 产生一些有益影响，但不能完全消除在巴基斯坦旁遮普省半干旱条件下未来气候变暖的负面影响。这种估计的可靠性需要进一步深入研究作物产量对不同田间管理条件下碳-温度-水相互作用的反应。