The east coast of Tasmania is directly exposed to tsunamis originating from the Puysegur subduction zone, off New Zealand’s southwest coast. However, the potential impacts of tsunami inundation for coastal communities and Hobart Airport, and risks to maritime operations in Hobart Port, are poorly understood. The purpose of this project is to simulate a maximum credible earthquake/tsunami/high tide scenario (a Mw 8.7 rupture of the Puysegur subduction zone) across a 17,000 km 2 model area and provide outputs that can inform local hazard management plans. Modelling was performed using the ANUGA hydrodynamic library, along with a detailed elevation model constructed from LiDAR, photogrammetric contours and bathymetric datasets. The modelling strategy comprised three primary scenarios: a 13 h simulation of tsunami activity focusing on maritime hazard from waves and currents, with two further 4 h simulations focusing on coastal inundation for 71 coastal communities and Hobart Airport. The models were run on a variable triangulated mesh with a detailed Manning’s n surface roughness model. Tsunami erosion of sand dunes was accounted for through the development of an erosion operator. Results predict severe inundation (> 4 m flow depth) in exposed east-facing areas and the maritime hazard assessment advises that water disturbance would pose a significant threat to marine craft. The assessment suggests that the feasibility of shipping evacuation from Hobart port is questionable, given the timeframes involved and the nature of simulated water disturbance. Modelling results suggest that the dune line in front of Hobart Airport would not be breached in this instance and so inundation would not occur.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚东南部最大可信海啸情景的海啸淹没和海上灾害建模

塔斯马尼亚东海岸直接暴露在源自新西兰西南海岸的 Puysegur 俯冲带的海啸中。然而，人们对海啸淹没对沿海社区和霍巴特机场的潜在影响以及对霍巴特港海上作业的风险知之甚少。该项目的目的是在 17,000 km 2 模型区域模拟最大可信的地震/海啸/高潮情景（Puysegur 俯冲带的 Mw 8.7 破裂），并提供可为当地灾害管理计划提供信息的输出。建模是使用 ANUGA 流体动力学库以及由 LiDAR、摄影测量轮廓和测深数据集构建的详细高程模型进行的。建模策略包括三个主要场景：一个 13 小时的海啸活动模拟，重点是海浪和洋流造成的海洋危害，另外两个 4 小时的模拟重点是 71 个沿海社区和霍巴特机场的沿海淹没。这些模型在带有详细的 Manning's n 表面粗糙度模型的可变三角网格上运行。沙丘的海啸侵蚀是通过开发侵蚀算子来解决的。结果预测暴露的朝东地区会发生严重的淹没（> 4 m 水深），海上灾害评估表明水扰动将对船舶构成重大威胁。评估表明，考虑到所涉及的时间框架和模拟水扰动的性质，从霍巴特港口疏散航运的可行性值得怀疑。