Ecological connectivity depends on key elements within the landscape, which can support ecological fluxes, species richness and long-term viability of a biological community. Landscape planning requires clear aims and quantitative approaches to identify which key elements can reinforce the spatial coherence of protected areas design. We aim to explore the probability of the ecological connectivity of forest remnants and amphibian species distributions for current and future climate scenarios across the Central Corridor of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Integrating amphibian conservation, climate change and ecological corridors, we design a landscape ranking based on graph and circuit theories. To identify the sensitivity of connected areas to climate-dependent changes, we use the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate by means of simulations for 2080–2100, representing a moderated emission scenario within an optimistic context. Our findings indicate that more than 70% of forest connectivity loss by climate change may drastically reduce amphibian dispersal in this region. We show that high amphibian turnover rates tend to be greater in the north-eastern edges of the corridor across ensembles of forecasts. Our spatial analysis reveals a general pattern of low-conductance areas in landscape surface, yet with some well-connected patches suggesting potential ecological corridors. Atlantic Forest reserves are expected to be less effective in a near future. For improved conservation outcomes, we recommend some landscape paths with low resistance values across space and time. We highlight the importance of maintaining forest remnants in the southern Bahia region by drafting a blueprint for functional biodiversity corridors.

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寻找网络：气候变化下两栖动物的生态连通性

生态连通性取决于景观中的关键要素，这些要素可以支持生态通量、物种丰富度和生物群落的长期生存能力。景观规划需要明确的目标和定量方法来确定哪些关键要素可以加强保护区设计的空间连贯性。我们的目标是探索巴西大西洋森林中央走廊当前和未来气候情景下森林遗迹和两栖动物物种分布的生态连通性的可能性。结合两栖动物保护、气候变化和生态走廊，我们设计了一个基于图和电路理论的景观排名。为了确定连接区域对气候相关变化的敏感性，我们通过模拟 2080-2100 年使用气候跨学科研究模型，在乐观的背景下代表缓和排放情景。我们的研究结果表明，气候变化导致 70% 以上的森林连通性丧失可能会大大减少该地区两栖动物的扩散。我们表明，在综合预测中，走廊东北边缘的两栖动物高周转率往往更高。我们的空间分析揭示了景观表面低电导区域的一般模式，但有一些连接良好的斑块表明潜在的生态走廊。预计大西洋森林保护区在不久的将来将不太有效。为了提高保护效果，我们推荐一些跨时空阻力值较低的景观路径。