Abstract

Correlative species distribution modelling is a widely used method to predict potential species ranges but can suffer from limitations in integrating species’ fundamental niches. Therefore, they might underestimate suitable ranges, but including physiological information can improve accuracy of predictions and help identify mechanisms of e.g. range limitation. However, approaches using both, results from correlative as well as physiological investigations are rare, especially in research on seaweeds. Here, we provide results from both approaches to predict the suitable habitat range of Capreolia implexa (Rhodophyta) in its native range (Australia and New Zealand) and invaded range (Chile) under present and future climate scenarios (year 2100, rcp 2.6 and rcp 8.5). We used the Maxent modelling technique and physiological knowledge from a temperature tolerance experiment (2–20 °C) for thermal niche estimation. Results from both approaches suggest larger suitable habitat ranges under present day conditions for both regions than currently occupied. Abiotic range limitation in the native range led to underestimation of the suitable temperature range by Maxent (here lower temperature limit = 8.3 °C). Predictions based on the laboratory temperature tolerance experiment suggest additional suitable habitat in colder regions (here lower temperature limit = 6.6 ± 0.4 °C). Under future climate conditions, both native and invaded ranges should shift southward, which will lead to an overall loss of suitable habitat in the native range. Like that, rcp 8.5 conditions should reduce the native range to 50% of the present-day extent. We demonstrate the limitation of correlative SDM modelling for species that live on continental margins and that physiological experiments can help to identify species’ niches beyond correlative analyses, providing valuable information for range projections. Furthermore, we provide valuable insights relevant for both invasion management and conservation.

Graphic abstract

中文翻译：

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赤藻在本地和入侵地区的未来范围动态：物种分布模型与生理知识的对比预测

摘要

相关物种分布建模是一种广泛用于预测潜在物种范围的方法，但在整合物种基本生态位方面会受到限制。因此，它们可能低估了合适的范围，但是包含生理信息可以提高预测的准确性，并有助于识别例如范围限制的机制。但是，很少同时使用相关研究和生理学研究的结果，特别是在海藻研究中。在这里，我们提供两种方法的结果，以预测绣线菊的适宜生境范围（Rhodophyta）在当前和未来气候情景（2100年，RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5）下在其原生范围（澳大利亚和新西兰）和入侵范围（智利）。我们使用Maxent建模技术和温度耐受性实验（2–20°C）中的生理学知识进行热生态位估计。两种方法的结果均表明，在当前条件下，两个地区在当前条件下的适宜生境范围都比目前所占用的更大。天然范围内的非生物范围限制导致Maxent低估了合适的温度范围（此处下限温度= 8.3°C）。根据实验室温度耐受性实验的预测表明，在寒冷地区（此处的温度下限= 6.6±0.4°C）还存在其他合适的栖息地。在未来的气候条件下，本地范围和入侵范围都应向南移动，这将导致本地范围内适当栖息地的整体丧失。那样，rcp 8.5条件应将本机范围减小到当前范围的50％。我们证明了相关SDM建模对于生活在大陆边缘的物种的局限性，并且生理学实验可以帮助在相关分析之外识别物种的生态位，为范围预测提供有价值的信息。此外，我们提供了与入侵管理和保护相关的宝贵见解。我们证明了相关SDM建模对于生活在大陆边缘的物种的局限性，并且生理学实验可以帮助在相关分析之外识别物种的生态位，为范围预测提供有价值的信息。此外，我们提供了与入侵管理和保护相关的宝贵见解。我们证明了相关SDM建模对于生活在大陆边缘的物种的局限性，并且生理学实验可以帮助在相关分析之外识别物种的生态位，为范围预测提供有价值的信息。此外，我们提供了与入侵管理和保护相关的宝贵见解。

图形摘要