In response to disease outbreak alerts in exporting countries, importing countries usually impose trade bans that vary in terms of product coverage and in terms of duration. We rely on a unique balanced panel dataset that covers four‐digit disaggregated beef products over the 1996–2013 period, to estimate the effect of a hypothetical removal of animal diseases outbreaks on trade flows. More specifically, we investigate how bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the foot and mouth diseases (FMDs) affect beef trade flows. We use a sectoral structural gravity approach to measure direct, conditional, and full effects, allowing inward and outward multilateral resistance indices, expenditures, and factory‐gate prices to adjust to the eradication of animal diseases. The indirect channels through which BSE and FMD impact trade are important. Our counterfactual experiment suggests that Canada would secure substantial gains from BSE and FMD eradication.

中文翻译：

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关于消除牛肉贸易中的牛疾病的反事实实验

为了应对出口国的疾病暴发警报，进口国通常会实施贸易禁令，其产品种类和持续时间各不相同。我们依靠一个独特的平衡面板数据集，该数据集涵盖1996-2013年间四位数的牛肉分类，以估计假想动物疫病暴发对贸易流量的影响。更具体地说，我们调查了牛海绵状脑病（BSE）和口蹄疫（FMDs）如何影响牛肉贸易流量。我们使用部门结构重力法来衡量直接，有条件和全面的影响，允许向内和向外的多边抗药性指数，支出和出厂价格调整以根除动物疾病。疯牛病和口蹄疫影响贸易的间接渠道很重要。