This paper deals with the controversial measure of indirect land use changes of the European biodiesel policy. Two studies sponsored by the European Commission find significant, but contrasted, land use impacts for the different vegetable oils used for biodiesel production. The first study uses an aggregate computable general equilibrium model capturing direct, indirect and induced effects. The second more recent study uses a biotechnical partial equilibrium model providing a detailed representation of the indirect effects occurring through the livestock sectors. We develop an original economic emulator to understand the diverging key results of these studies and test their sensitivity. We find that the direct and indirect effects on vegetable oil and land markets explain most of the differences. We also find that indirect effects on the feed markets and the induced effects have less influence on the biodiesel results. We finally argue that the development of emulators as done here can help to understand complex policy assessments.

中文翻译：

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欧盟生物柴油政策对土地利用的影响：评估直接，间接和诱发的影响

本文探讨了有争议的欧洲生物柴油政策对土地使用的间接变化。欧盟委员会发起的两项研究发现，土地使用对生物柴油生产中使用的不同植物油产生了重大但相反的影响。第一项研究使用聚集的可计算一般均衡模型来捕获直接，间接和诱发的影响。最近的第二项研究使用生物技术局部平衡模型，详细描述了通过畜牧业发生的间接影响。我们开发了一个原始的经济模拟器来了解这些研究的不同关键结果并测试其敏感性。我们发现，对植物油和土地市场的直接和间接影响解释了大多数差异。我们还发现，对饲料市场的间接影响和诱发影响对生物柴油结果的影响较小。我们最终认为，此处所做的仿真器开发可以帮助理解复杂的策略评估。