Exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) help to improve global wheat availability and, hence, global food security. During the past 15 years, however, RUK wheat exports have shown high variability, mainly because they have been repeatedly diminished by severe harvest failures. We present an outlook for RUK wheat production and exports up to 2027, taking into account possible yield variability and harvest failures, and focusing on the impact on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the world’s major wheat importing region. For the analysis we use the stochastic version of the Aglink‐Cosimo model. Simulation results show that wheat yields in RUK are a major source of uncertainty for international wheat markets. The projected substantial increases in world market prices due to limited RUK wheat exports threaten food security in MENA and highlight the need for both stabilising RUK yields and novel complementary food security approaches to decrease MENA’s vulnerability to disruptions in agricultural world markets.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯，乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦的产量变异和收成失误及其对中东和北非粮食安全的可能影响

俄罗斯，乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦（RUK）的出口有助于提高全球小麦的供应量，从而改善全球粮食安全。但是，在过去的15年中，RUK小麦的出口量表现出很大的波动性，这主要是由于严重的收成失误使出口量反复减少。考虑到可能的产量波动和收成不佳，并着眼于对世界主要小麦进口地区中东和北非（MENA）的粮食安全的影响，我们提出了直至2027年RUK小麦的生产和出口前景。为了进行分析，我们使用了Aglink-Cosimo模型的随机版本。模拟结果表明，RUK的小麦单产是国际小麦市场不确定性的主要来源。