We quantitatively assess the impacts of re‐allocating budgetary resources within Pillar 1 of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) from direct income support to a direct greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction subsidy for EU farmers. The analysis is motivated by the discussion on the future CAP, with calls for both an increased ambition on climate action from the agricultural sector and for a more incentive‐based delivery system of direct payments under strict budgetary restrictions. By conducting a simulation experiment with an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPRI), we are able to factor in farmers’ supply and technology‐adjusting responses to the policy change and to estimate the potential uptake of the GHG‐reduction subsidy in EU regions. We find that a budget‐neutral re‐allocation of financial resources towards subsidised emission savings can reduce EU agricultural non‐CO₂ emissions by 21% by 2030, compared to a business‐as‐usual baseline. Two‐thirds of the emission savings are due to changes in production levels and composition, implying that a significant part of the achieved GHG reduction is offset globally by emission leakage. At the aggregated level, the emission‐saving subsidy and increased producer prices compensate farmers for the foregone direct income support, but differences in regional impacts indicate accelerated structural change and heterogeneous income effects in the farm population. We conclude that the assumed regional budget‐neutrality condition introduces inefficiencies in the incentive system, and the full potential of the EU farming sector for GHG emissions reduction is not reached, leaving ample room for the design of more efficient agricultural policies for climate action.

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将气候行动作为共同农业政策的优先事项：模拟实验

我们定量评估了欧盟共同农业政策（CAP）支柱1中重新分配预算资源的影响，从直接收入支持到对欧盟农民的直接温室气体（GHG）减少补贴。该分析是基于对未来CAP的讨论而得出的，呼吁既要增强农业部门对气候行动的抱负，又要在严格的预算限制下建立一种基于激励的直接支付交付系统。通过使用农业局部均衡模型（CAPRI）进行的模拟实验，我们可以考虑农民对政策变化的供应和技术调整反应，并估算欧盟地区可能减少的温室气体排放补贴。₂与通常的基准相比，到2030年排放量减少21％。三分之二的排放节省归因于生产水平和组成的变化，这意味着全球已实现的温室气体减排量的很大一部分被排放泄漏所抵消。从总体上讲，减排补贴和生产者价格上涨补偿了农民已放弃的直接收入支持，但区域影响的差异表明，结构变化的加速和农民人口收入的异质性。我们得出的结论是，假定的区域预算中立条件会导致激励体系效率低下，并且欧盟农业部门无法实现减少温室气体排放的全部潜力，从而为设计更有效的气候行动农业政策留有足够的空间。