The Ricardian approach is a popular hedonic method for analyzing climate change impacts on agriculture. The approach typically relies on a cross-sectional regression of farmland asset prices on fixed climate variables, making it particularly vulnerable to omitted variables. I conduct a long-spanning Ricardian analysis of farmland prices in the eastern United States (1950-2012) and find a convergence of evidence indicating that large estimates of climate change damages for recent cross-sections (>1970s), also found in the literature, can be explained by the growing influence of omitted factors extraneous to the agricultural sector. I propose and evaluate a simple strategy to circumvent such ∗Ariel Ortiz-Bobea is Assistant Professor and CoBank/Farm Credit East Sesquicentennial Faculty Fellow in Production Economics and Sustainability, Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850. Email: ao332@cornell.edu. I am grateful for helpful comments from seminar participants at the World Bank, Cornell, UC Davis, Resources for the Future, Purdue, Stanford (Climate Impacts Workshop at SEEPAC), the AERE and ASSA/AERE meetings, USDA/ERS, EPA/NCEE, the Environmental Northeast workshop at Dartmouth, the AAEA meetings and Kansas State. I am also grateful for feedback at different stages of this project from multiple colleagues including Antonio Bento, Jan Bruekner, Marshall Burke, Olivier Deschênes, Ken Gillingham, Nathan Hendricks, Shanjun Li, Cynthia Lin Lawell, Crocker Liu, Robert Mendelsohn, Pierre Mérel, Tim Mount, Lucija Muehlenbachs, Nick Sanders, Paulina Oliva, Michael Roberts, Albert Saiz, Juan Sesmero, Edson Severnini, Wolfram Schlenker, Juha Siikamäki, Jesse Tack and Margaret Walls. I thank 3 anonymous referees for their engaging feedback. Finally, I thank Samantha Sekar and Ziyan (Jessica) Chu for excellent research assistance in the early stages of the project. This research was partly supported by NSF grant 1360424 and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch/Multi State project 1011555. I am also grateful for support from Cornell’s Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future.

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非农影响在气候变化对美国农业影响的李嘉图估计中的作用

李嘉图方法是一种流行的享乐方法，用于分析气候变化对农业的影响。该方法通常依赖于农田资产价格对固定气候变量的横截面回归，使其特别容易受到遗漏变量的影响。我对美国东部（1950-2012 年）的农田价格进行了一次长期的李嘉图分析，并发现了证据的收敛性，表明对近期横截面（> 1970 年代）的气候变化损害的大量估计，也在文献中找到，可以解释为被忽略的与农业部门无关的因素的影响越来越大。我提出并评估了一个简单的策略来规避这种情况 ∗Ariel Ortiz-Bobea 是助理教授和 CoBank/Farm Credit East Sesquicentennial 生产经济学和可持续性学院研究员，Charles H. 戴森应用经济与管理学院，康奈尔大学，伊萨卡，NY 14850。电子邮件：ao332@cornell.edu。感谢世界银行、康奈尔大学、加州大学戴维斯分校、未来资源、普渡大学、斯坦福大学（SEEPAC 的气候影响研讨会）、AERE 和 ASSA/AERE 会议、USDA/ERS、EPA/NCEE 的研讨会参与者的有益评论、达特茅斯东北部环境研讨会、AAEA 会议和堪萨斯州。我还要感谢多位同事在项目不同阶段的反馈，包括 Antonio Bento、Jan Bruekner、Marshall Burke、Olivier Deschê​​nes、Ken Gillingham、Nathan Hendricks、Shanjun Li、Cynthia Lin Lawell、Crocker Liu、Robert Mendelsohn、Pierre Mérel，蒂姆·芒特、露西娅·穆伦巴赫斯、尼克·桑德斯、宝琳娜·奥利瓦、迈克尔·罗伯茨、阿尔伯特·赛兹、胡安·塞斯梅罗、埃德森·塞维尼尼、沃尔夫拉姆·施伦克、Juha Siikamäki、杰西·塔克 (Jesse Tack) 和玛格丽特·沃尔斯 (Margaret Walls)。我感谢 3 位匿名裁判的参与反馈。最后，感谢 Samantha Sekar 和 Ziyan (Jessica) Chu 在项目早期提供的出色研究帮助。这项研究部分得到了 NSF 拨款 1360424 和美国农业部国家粮食和农业研究所，哈奇/多州项目 1011555 的支持。我也感谢康奈尔大学阿特金森可持续未来中心的支持。