Despite widespread acceptance of the utility of population modeling and advocacy of this approach for a more ecologically relevant perspective, it is not routinely incorporated in ecological risk assessments (ERA). A systematic framework for situation‐specific model development is one of the major challenges to broadly adopting population models in ERA. As risk assessors confront the multitude of species and chemicals requiring evaluation, an adaptable stepwise guide for model parameterization would facilitate this process. Additional guidance on interpretation of model output and evaluating uncertainty would further contribute to establishing consensus on good modeling practices. We build on previous work that created a framework and decision guide for developing population models for ERA by focusing on data types, model structure, and extrinsic stressors relevant to anuran amphibians. Anurans have a unique life cycle with varying habitat requirements and high phenotypic plasticity. These species belong to the amphibian class, which is facing global population decline in large part due to anthropogenic stressors, including chemicals. We synthesize information from databases and literature relevant to amphibian risks to identify traits that influence exposure likelihood, inherent sensitivity, population vulnerability, and environmental constraints. We link these concerns with relevant population modeling methods and structure in order to evaluate pesticide effects with appropriate scale and parameterization. A standardized population modeling approach, with additional guidance for anuran ERA, offers an example method for quantifying population risks and evaluating long‐term impacts of chemical stressors to populations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:223–233. © 2019 SETAC

中文翻译：

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开发用于生态风险评估的两栖动物种群模型的指南。

尽管人们普遍接受人口建模的效用，并倡导这种方法从更生态相关的角度来看，但它并没有被常规地纳入生态风险评估 (ERA)。针对特定情况模型开发的系统框架是在 ERA 中广泛采用人口模型的主要挑战之一。由于风险评估人员面临需要评估的众多物种和化学品，模型参数化的适应性逐步指南将促进这一过程。关于模型输出解释和评估不确定性的额外指导将进一步有助于就良好建模实践达成共识。我们建立在以前的工作的基础上，通过关注数据类型、模型结构、和与anuran 两栖动物相关的外在压力源。Anurans 具有独特的生命周期，具有不同的栖息地要求和高表型可塑性。这些物种属于两栖类，在很大程度上由于包括化学物质在内的人为压力源而面临全球人口减少。我们从与两栖动物风险相关的数据库和文献中综合信息，以确定影响暴露可能性、固有敏感性、种群脆弱性和环境限制的特征。我们将这些问题与相关的人口建模方法和结构联系起来，以便以适当的规模和参数化评估农药效果。一种标准化的人口建模方法，以及对 anuran ERA 的额外指导，2020 年整合环境评估管理；16：223–233。© 2019 SETAC