Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.

中文翻译：

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了解城市发展政策与温室气体排放之间的相互作用：斯德哥尔摩地区的案例研究。


人类引起的城市增长和扩张对温室气体 (GHG) 排放产生影响，而传统的温室气体核算方法可能未包含这些影响。加深对这个问题的理解需要使用交互式、空间明确的社会生态系统模型。本文以瑞典斯德哥尔摩县为案例研究，开发了一种对城市发展产生的温室气体排放进行建模的综合方法。使用社会生态系统模型预测到 2040 年的温室气体排放量总体上高于官方气候行动规划中的简单外推。城市扩张导致的单一住宅建筑能源使用的排放差异最为显着（高出 39%）。并且这种差异并未在简单的推断中得到考虑。情景结果表明，限制某些地区城市发展的分区政策可以减轻模型预测的城市扩张带来的总排放影响的 72%。研究成果包括一个决策支持界面，用于与政策制定者沟通结果和政策影响。