I present a recent historical case from cosmology—the story of inflationary cosmology—and on its basis argue that solving explanatory problems is a reliable method for making progress in science. In particular, I claim that the success of inflationary theory at solving its predecessor’s explanatory problems justified the theory epistemically, even in advance of the development of novel predictions from the theory and the later confirmation of those predictions. 1. Introduction2. A Portrait of the Argument as a Short Précis3. A Brief History of Inflationary Theory4. Empiricist Interpretations of Inflationary Case5. A Confutation of Empiricist Interpretations6. Explanationist Interpretation of Inflationary Case7. Concluding Remarks Introduction A Portrait of the Argument as a Short Précis A Brief History of Inflationary Theory Empiricist Interpretations of Inflationary Case A Confutation of Empiricist Interpretations Explanationist Interpretation of Inflationary Case Concluding Remarks

中文翻译：

---

膨胀宇宙学中的认识论论证和方法论运气

我提出了一个最近的宇宙学历史案例——暴胀宇宙学的故事——并在此基础上认为解决解释性问题是促进科学进步的可靠方法。特别是，我声称暴胀理论在解决其前身的解释性问题方面的成功在认识上证明了该理论的合理性，甚至在从该理论中发展出新的预测以及后来对这些预测的确认之前。1. 介绍 2. 作为一个简短的 Précis3 的论证的肖像。通货膨胀理论简史4。通货膨胀案例的经验主义解释5。经验主义解释的反驳 6。通货膨胀案例的解释主义解释7。