This study estimates the future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments in Australia, focusing on assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), intrauterine insemination (IUI), and ovulation induction. A multistate cohort component population projection model is used to determine future fertility rates from 2016 to 2026 by age and education level. These are combined with information on recent trends in use and success rates to indirectly estimate future age-specific probabilities of fertility treatment utilization. The number of ART cycles is expected to increase by 61 per cent between 2016 and 2026 if treatment success rates remain at 2015 levels, or by 34 per cent if recent improvements in ART success rates continue. The model also predicts that numbers of IUI cycles and ovulation induction cycles will decrease by 17 and 3 per cent, respectively. This research confirms the importance of including both technological improvements and socio-demographic changes when predicting future fertility treatment utilization.

中文翻译：

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计划将来使用医学辅助的生育治疗。

这项研究估计了澳大利亚医疗辅助生育治疗的未来利用，重点是辅助生殖技术（ART），子宫内授精（IUI）和排卵诱导。使用多州人群组成部分人口预测模型来确定2016年至2026年按年龄和教育水平划分的未来生育率。将这些与有关近期使用趋势和成功率的信息相结合，可以间接地估计未来特定年龄的生育治疗利用概率。如果治疗成功率保持在2015年的水平，则ART周期数预计将在2016年至2026年之间增加61％，如果ART近期成功率继续提高，则将增加34％。该模型还预测，IUI周期和排卵诱导周期数将减少17％和3％，分别。这项研究证实了在预测未来的生育治疗利用时，同时包括技术改进和社会人口变化的重要性。