To guide recruitment, the ABCD Study requires a method for identifying children at high risk for early-onset substance use that may be utilized during the recruitment process. This study was undertaken to inform the development of a brief screen for identifying youths’ risk of early-onset substance use and other adverse outcomes. To be acceptable by participants in this context, consideration of potential items was limited to child characteristics previously determined to be potentially pertinent and parental cigarette smoking. To focus the analyses on a single target substance use outcome pertinent to the stated goals of the ABCD Study, early-onset marijuana use was selected. Utilizing data collected prior to the initiation of the ABCD Study, four longitudinal data sets were used in nine secondary data analyses to test, replicate and validate a brief screening assessment for boys and girls to identify those at risk for early-onset marijuana use by ages 14–15. The combination of child externalizing problems reported by the parent (4 items: destroys things belonging to his/her family or others; disobedience at school; lying or cheating; steals outside the home) and parent smoking (1 item) proved to be the optimal screen. This was largely replicated across the four data sets. Indicators of predictive efficiency were modest in magnitude and statistically significant in 8 out of the 9 analyses. The results informed the screen’s optimal threshold for identifying children at risk for early-onset marijuana use. The addition of child internalizing problems did not improve these predictions. Further analyses showed the predictive utility of the screen for several other substance use outcomes at ages 15 to 18, including alcohol and nicotine use. The results support the use of a short screening assessment to identify youth at risk for early-onset substance use in the ABCD Study and other research.

为了指导招募，ABCD 研究需要一种方法来识别可能在招募过程中使用的早发性物质使用高风险儿童。进行这项研究是为了开发一个简短的屏幕，用于识别青少年早发性物质使用和其他不良后果的风险。为了在这种情况下被参与者接受，对潜在项目的考虑仅限于先前确定为可能相关的儿童特征和父母吸烟。为了将分析重点放在与 ABCD 研究的既定目标相关的单一目标物质使用结果上，选择了早发性大麻使用。利用 ABCD 研究开始前收集的数据，在九个二级数据分析中使用了四个纵向数据集来测试，复制并验证针对男孩和女孩的简短筛查评估，以确定 14-15 岁有早发性吸食大麻风险的人。父母报告的孩子外化问题（4 项：破坏属于他/她的家人或他人的东西；在学校不听话；说谎或作弊；在家外偷东西）和父母吸烟（1 项）的组合被证明是最佳的屏幕。这在很大程度上在四个数据集中得到了复制。在 9 项分析中的 8 项分析中，预测效率指标的幅度适中且具有统计学意义。结果告知屏幕的最佳阈值，用于识别有早发性大麻使用风险的儿童。增加儿童内化问题并没有改善这些预测。进一步的分析表明，该筛查对 15 至 18 岁的其他几种物质使用结果具有预测效用，包括酒精和尼古丁的使用。结果支持在 ABCD 研究和其他研究中使用短期筛查评估来识别有早发性物质使用风险的青少年。