ABSTRACT

This paper provides new evidence of the impacts of early life exposure to the 1918 pandemic on old-age mortality by analyzing data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (n ~ 220,000). The specifications used year and quarter of birth indicators to assess the effects of timing of pandemic exposure and used Cox proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality outcomes. The findings suggest evidence of excess all-cause mortality for cohorts born during 1918 and mixed evidence for cohorts born in 1917 and 1919. Therefore, contrary to some existing research, the results suggest no consistent evidence of the importance of specific windows of exposure by gestation period.

摘要

本文通过分析美国国家纵向死亡率研究（n〜220,000）的数据，提供了1918年大流行早期生命暴露对老年死亡率影响的新证据。该规范使用出生年份和季度指标来评估大流行暴露时间的影响，并使用Cox比例风险模型得出全因死亡率结果。这些发现表明，有证据表明1918年出生的队列的全因死亡率过高，以及1917和1919年出生的队列的混合证据。因此，与某些现有研究相反，结果表明，没有始终如一的证据表明特定的妊娠窗口暴露的重要性期。